Tomas Horak
Tomas Horak
Czech Republic
2mo
Hello copiers, Markets have been quite turbulent in recent months. And this is not only about situations where a new AI model is released and previously “sure-thing” stocks suddenly drop by tens of percent within days. We are also seeing significant geopolitical tension and macro uncertainty affecting multiple sectors. One of the major drivers of volatility is the current conflict involving Iran, which has pushed energy markets into a much more unstable state. Oil prices have reacted sharply to disruptions and fears around supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important global oil shipping corridors. When geopolitical risk rises in such regions, energy prices tend to react quickly, which then propagates through inflation expectations and equity markets. Interestingly, the current energy situation has also triggered a broader political discussion in Europe. Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated that Europe made a “strategic mistake” by turning away from nuclear energy, arguing that abandoning a reliable and low-emission power source increased Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. This kind of structural energy dependency becomes particularly visible during geopolitical crises like the one we are currently witnessing. When energy supply becomes uncertain, it quickly feeds into commodity markets, inflation expectations, and ultimately stock valuations. Despite this environment, our portfolio remains relatively stable. At the moment we are experiencing a small drawdown, but we are still approximately +2.5% year-to-date, which I consider a solid outcome given the level of volatility in global markets. The underlying investment theses behind our positions remain unchanged. However, due to elevated geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty, I am currently waiting before initiating additional purchases. In periods like this, patience and discipline are often more valuable than constant activity. New entries will likely come once volatility stabilizes and the risk-reward profile becomes clearer. For now, the approach remains the same: protect capital, stay selective, and avoid reacting emotionally to short-term noise. Your capital is at risk.|This post is for informational purposes only and reflects my personal view and decisions.|Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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