Yun Jui Tsai @YunRueiTsai: "@YunRueiTsai 2026 YTD Return: +33.64% $NSDQ100 YTD:17.0% $SPX500..."

Taiwan

@YunRueiTsai 2026 YTD Return: +33.64% $NSDQ100 YTD:17.0% $SPX500 YTD:10.08% Weekly Watchlist: CPI, earnings season, and Korea deleveraging This week is a confirmation week. The market has three big questions: 1. Will inflation cool down? 2. Will tech earnings beat expectations? 3. Is the Korea memory deleveraging over? The biggest risk signal is still Korea. Over the past month, the Korean market has triggered multiple trading halts because leverage became too aggressive. Korea margin debt peaked near ₩38T Single-stock 2x leveraged ETF AUM peaked near ₩15.41T Samsung + SK Hynix + leveraged products reached 83.1% of KOSPI trading value Samsung + SK Hynix now dominate the KOSPI like a memory ETF My neutral KOSPI valuation range is around 7,000–7,600 So from my valuation model, Korea is already near a more reasonable zone. But reasonable valuation does not mean the market cannot overreact. When leverage is too high, prices can fall below fair value before stabilizing. That is why I am not only watching valuation. I am watching whether forced selling is ending. This week’s key events: Tuesday: US June CPI Warsh’s first House testimony $JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co) $BAC (Bank of America Corp) $WFC (Wells Fargo & Co) earnings Wednesday: US June PPI Warsh Senate testimony $GS (Goldman Sachs Group Inc) C, MS earnings Thursday: $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) earnings call $ASML (ASML Holding NV) earnings US retail sales Netflix earnings Friday: Industrial production Housing starts Consumer sentiment key data points: CPI is the main switch. If CPI is mild, the market may continue to believe rate pressure is under control. That would support $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) AI hardware, and high-growth stocks. But if CPI is hotter than expected, high-valuation tech will likely face pressure first. PPI is also important. CPI shows consumer inflation. PPI shows producer cost pressure. If PPI stays high, the market may worry about margin pressure and sticky inflation. For AI, the most important company events are TSMC and ASML. TSMC tells us whether AI chip demand, CoWoS, and advanced process demand remain strong. ASML tells us whether global semiconductor equipment demand is still healthy. If TSMC and ASML both deliver better-than-expected outlooks, AI hardware sentiment can repair quickly. My checklist this week: QQQ reclaims strength $SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF ) starts outperforming QQQ $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) / $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR) / $SKHY (SK hynix Inc ADR) stabilize TSMC confirms AI demand ASML confirms equipment demand CPI / PPI reduce rate pressure Bank earnings do not signal credit stress For copiers: If tech earnings beat expectations and AI hardware repairs, I will let strong positions continue to work. If the rebound is weak, or SOXX turns lower again, I will adjust exposure and reduce unnecessary risk.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.