Rudolf De Leeuw @RudolfDeLeeuw: "𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐄𝐒𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍𝐒..."

Netherlands

𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐄𝐒𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍𝐒 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐌𝐘 𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐅𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐎 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐂𝐊 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓 ⚠️🛢️ The Iran-US conflict has escalated sharply again, putting the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supplies back at the centre of attention. The US launched new strikes against Iranian military targets. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-linked installations across several Gulf countries. Iran claims that Hormuz is closed to vessels without its authorisation, while the US says commercial ships can still use a southern corridor. The key question is not whether the strait is officially open or closed, but whether shipping companies and insurers are willing to use it safely. At the moment, shipping traffic remains extremely limited. ⚠️ 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐄𝐒 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐂𝐓 𝐈𝐌𝐌𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐋𝐘 🛢️🔥 At the time of writing, Brent crude is up around 4.3% to approximately $79.30 per barrel, while WTI has gained roughly 4.4% to around $74.60. About one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments passed through Hormuz before the conflict. Even without a full closure, fewer tanker movements and higher insurance costs can push energy prices higher. Oil will remain highly sensitive to every military and diplomatic headline. 𝐓𝐇𝐑𝐄𝐄 𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐁𝐋𝐄 𝐒𝐂𝐄𝐍𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐎𝐒 📊 1️⃣ 𝐃𝐄-𝐄𝐒𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 If negotiations resume and tanker traffic normalises, much of the geopolitical premium could disappear quickly. The market would then refocus on recovering production, global demand and possible excess supply, putting downward pressure on oil. 2️⃣ 𝐀 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐋𝐎𝐍𝐆𝐄𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐎𝐅𝐅 The strait could remain technically open while shipping stays limited by attacks, insurance costs and escalation risks. Oil could remain volatile and elevated for longer. This may be the most damaging scenario: no full shutdown, but months of higher energy, transport and production costs. 3️⃣ 𝐀 𝐅𝐔𝐋𝐋 𝐒𝐔𝐏𝐏𝐋𝐘 𝐒𝐇𝐎𝐂𝐊 If tanker traffic largely stops or major energy infrastructure is damaged, oil could move significantly higher. Prices above $90 or even a temporary return towards $100 cannot be ruled out. This is not my base case, but it is a serious risk. 𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍𝐒 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐂𝐊𝐒 📉 Global markets have moved into risk-off mode. S&P 500 futures are down around 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures are approximately 1.3% lower. Asian technology and semiconductor stocks also declined. Higher oil prices create several problems: 🔸 Higher inflation 🔸 Higher transport costs 🔸 Pressure on profit margins 🔸 Less consumer spending 🔸 Higher bond yields 🔸 Fewer rate cuts 🔸 Lower growth-stock valuations Technology stocks are particularly sensitive because higher inflation and bond yields reduce the present value of future earnings. Airlines, transport and travel companies are vulnerable to higher fuel costs. Energy producers, oil-service companies and some defence stocks may benefit short term, but extremely high oil prices eventually hurt almost the entire economy. 𝐌𝐘 𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐅𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐎 𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍𝐈𝐍𝐆 📊🛢️ I had already sold almost all of my airline positions before this latest escalation, so my direct exposure to airlines and rising aviation fuel costs is now very limited. The most relevant position in my portfolio is my approximately 10% short exposure to oil through $USO (United States Oil Fund). The renewed rise in oil is clearly a short-term headwind for this position. My oil short is based on the expectation that the geopolitical premium will eventually decline once the conflict de-escalates, tanker traffic normalises and the market refocuses on supply and demand. However, oil could move higher first. If disruption to Hormuz lasts longer than expected or becomes a structural supply shock, oil could remain elevated and the position would stay under pressure. Timing is therefore extremely important. 𝐌𝐘 𝐂𝐔𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐓 𝐕𝐈𝐄𝐖 👀 My base case remains that neither Iran nor the US benefits from a prolonged shutdown of Hormuz. Iran needs export revenue, the US wants to avoid another inflation shock, and Gulf countries want to prevent a wider conflict. All parties therefore have an incentive to return to negotiations. However, this is more serious than a normal geopolitical scare because commercial shipping is actually being disrupted. Until tanker traffic genuinely normalises, oil is likely to retain a substantial risk premium. For stocks, higher oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and potentially higher interest rates are clearly negative in the short term. Actions and shipping data currently matter more than political statements. 𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐃𝐎 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐄𝐂𝐓? 👇 A like is always appreciated. It helps this update reach more people and motivates me to keep investing time and effort into sharing these portfolio insights. 🙌 $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $RTY $USO $QQQ (Invesco QQQ)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

A. De-escalation: oil <$70

100.00%

B. Standoff: oil $75–90

100.00%

C. Escalation: oil >$100

100.00%

D. Stocks recover and rise

100.00%