Good Saturday !
MACROECONOMICS
This week, the easing of geopolitical tensions and the increase in interest in technology stocks have allowed new records to be set in Europe. Traders ultimately opted for some profit-taking, awaiting upcoming company publications and greater visibility on the Fed's trajectory, especially as Wall Street retreated following conflicting publications.
The structural factors supporting growth are still in place: fiscal stimuli arriving, the Fed on a rate cutting cycle and explicit Quantitative Easing, all supported by strong productivity gains. Consumption remains solid despite a stagnant labor market, but shows no signs of marked deterioration. After the temporary effect linked to customs duties, US inflation is returning towards the target of 2.6-2.7%, with a progressive decline in real rents. The only potential shadow on the picture is represented by the mid-term elections, which could generate volatility with a non-negligible correction risk, amplified by Trump's political initiatives. Nonetheless, bond yields are stable, as evidenced by the US 10-year bond yield, which remains within a narrow range of 4.10% to 4.20%.
After a rather uncertain week on the stock market, the volume of company results will increase in the coming days, especially in the United States. Among the expected names are Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Procter and Intel. China's fourth quarter growth (Monday) and flash PMI indicators (Friday) will frame a slew of US statistics delayed by the shutdown. On Wall Street, Monday will be a public holiday on the occasion of the day dedicated to Martin Luther King.
Good weekend.
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Fri Feb 13 2026 19:11:49 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
