Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "Record profits everywhere. Red screens..."

Finland

Record profits everywhere. Red screens everywhere. Both are true and only one of them is news. $SMSN.L (Samsung Electronics Co Ltd - GDR) recently posted the largest quarterly operating profit in the history of the technology sector, around 89.4 trillion won, roughly 19 times last year. The stock is punished with sell-off. $VRT (Vertiv Holdings Co) beat on earnings and raised guidance on every line. Down 12.6% 📉 $GEV (GE Vernova LLC) posted record orders, raised guidance, sits on a 176 billion backlog, 5 year ahead sold out. Down 6.4%. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) guided to 50 billion in quarterly revenue at 86% gross margin. It trades 40% below its June peak. Not one of these companies reported weak demand. They reported into share prices that already assumed perfection. Samsung was up almost 150% this year before it printed. Vertiv was up 67% before it missed revenue by 3.4%. Then there is $MSFT (Microsoft). Azure grew 43% against guidance of 39 to 40%, and signed commercial backlog reached 678 billion, up 84%. The stock rose. That Microsoft report is the one I had been waiting for a couple of months. I work with AI inside a corporate environment every day, and the shift over twelve months is not subtle. Pilots became budgets. Budgets became rebuilt workflows. The argument in the room is now about token cost, not about whether to start or not. Inference has quietly overtaken training as the bigger share of compute, and inference is a recurring bill. That is why it lands in Azure revenue instead of sitting in a capex slide. Meanwhile the picks and shovels get punished while their customers raise spending. Microsoft put 35.8 billion into property and equipment in one quarter against 17.1 billion a year ago. Meta lifted the floor of its capex range, not the ceiling. The risks are real. Nobody holds 86% memory margins forever, and Chinese DRAM capacity is coming. But a bubble bursting looks like cancelled orders. This looks like a crowded trade getting uncrowded. I think Micron, GE Vernova and Vertiv get re-rated once the backlog turns into cash. I still believe in corporate AI bills, I don’t care much about retail market. What would actually change your mind here, the numbers or the chart? ——— ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.