2025 US Equities Recap
2025 was a volatile yet ultimately rewarding year for US equities, marked by a strong recovery from early turmoil to deliver solid gains across major indices.
The S&P 500 rose approximately 18% for the year, closing near record highs around 6,900 after hitting an all-time peak in December. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 22-24% advance, fueled by tech sector resilience. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged relatively, up about 12-15%, ending around 48,000.
Key drivers included persistent AI enthusiasm, with tech giants like Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet leading gains amid massive investments in data centers and AI infrastructure. Large-cap growth stocks dominated, with momentum as a core factor, while sectors like communications services (+32%) and IT (+25%) topped performers. Innovation in solar, digital finance, and utilities (via AI-related power demands) also shone.
The Federal Reserve supported markets with 75 basis points in rate cuts over its last three 2025 meetings, easing to 3.50%-3.75% amid cooling inflation and solid growth.
However, volatility spiked early. In late January, China's DeepSeek chatbot disrupted US AI dominance by showing low-cost model training, triggering a 17% Nvidia drop and broader tech selloff. Then, on April 2 ("Liberation Day"), President Trump's sweeping tariffs—escalating to 11-50% on major partners—sparked a "flash bear market," with the S&P 500 plunging nearly 20% through early April amid trade war fears and bond yield spikes.
Markets rebounded swiftly by June, aided by tariff pauses, resilient earnings (S&P 500 EPS up ~12%), and economic strength, echoing 2017 patterns under Trump's first term. Real estate lagged (+0.5%), while miners like Freeport-McMoRan gained on commodity surges.
Overall, US equities overcame geopolitical and tech disruptions, posting broad gains in a bull market now three years old, with concentration in megacaps persisting.
Outlook for 2026
Analysts are unanimously bullish on US equities for 2026, with no surveyed strategists forecasting a decline—the first such consensus in years.
The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,800, implying a 14% rise from late-2025 levels, driven by robust GDP growth (2.6% vs. global 2.0%), tax cuts, and easing financial conditions.
US outperformance is expected, led by tech amid continued AI momentum and earnings acceleration (S&P EPS +14.5%).Fed policy remains key: Markets price in two more rate cuts, though divisions on pace could add volatility.
Risks include a 10%+ correction in large-caps early/mid-year from high valuations, lingering tariff effects, or AI bubble concerns, but most see the rally extending with broader sector participation.
Opportunities lie in industrialized AI, data centers, and resilient earners, with upside from global shifts and domestic politics.
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Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Ahoj, pozrel som si tvoje PTF a vzhľadom na tvoj vek sa mi zdá príliš konzervatívne. Príliš veľa ETF a málo rastových/perspektívnych akcií.... Show More Translate
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Mon Jun 15 2026 07:30:43 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
