Niklas Kääb @NiklasKaab: "End of Year Portfolio Update..."

Germany

End of Year Portfolio Update 2025 has been an amazingly successful year – so with that it is time to dive into some numbers and also have a glimpse into the future 📈 Total Gains: 25,70 % 📈 Total Copiers: + 27 Copiers --- Performance Indicators (YoY) $SPX500: +17,07% | Outperformed ✅ $NASDQ100: +20,59% | Outperfromed ✅ $EUSTX50: +19,41% | Outperformed ✅ --- A year in Review: 1️⃣ Early in the Year we could translate Trump-Induced Panic into large gains in the European Market. Forex effects acting as leverage became especially important in this but are also a major risk contributor 2️⃣ Riding the AI related hype allowed many of the indices and stocks in my portfolio to perform past expectations. 3️⃣ We took profits on many of the more short-term plays, as well as reduced exposure to some underperforming stocks. --- 2026 – Major volatility ahead: While 2025 could not have gone better (at the level of risk this portfolio is comfortable taking) 2026 has me worried some. With the market closing its fifth year of easy gains, the music must stop at some point. Here is what we need to look out for. 1️⃣Munich Security Conference / February: A key indicator of the transatlantic partnership will be the outcome and behavior of both sides during this conference. Aside from the first weeks past the inauguration I do not believe the Market views a major deterioration in the US – EU relationship as very likely. Should the conference end on a sour note expect major volatility, especially with export focused companies. ( $AIR.PA (AIRBUS SE) $CDI.PA (Christian Dior) $HEN.DE (Henkel AG & Co. KGaA) $MC.PA (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA)) 2️⃣ Potential Open AI IPO / Unconfirmed but talked about for second half of 2026: Since the talks have hit the town about a potential Open AI IPO, I must admit that few single events have me more worried. Around Open AI there exists a complex and interdependent network of stock options that have never been valued correctly by an open market and expose most of the tech-giants to major downside ( $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $MSFT (Microsoft) $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $ASML.NV (ASML Holding NV)) should the stock price after the IPO not reflect the expectations priced with the options. Same can be said of course in regard to upside volatility – but especially the cumulative risk we have through the ETF’s ( $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $SWDA.L (iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ)) we hold, make this an event we need to follow very closely. 3️⃣ Ukraine & Russia Conflict / All throughout 2026: I must admit that I am not a fan of Donald Trump. I must also admit that there seems to be some slow but steady process towards an eventual freeze of the conflict – in part through US mediation. Since this portfolio has exposure to European Defense ( $RMH.DE $AM.PA (Dassault Aviation SA)) companies, as well as Energy companies ( $SHEL.L (Shell PLC)) we need to monitor closely and expect volatility on those stocks But despite all of that I am not overly worried. Because there are many risks this portfolio faces this also means we are somewhat well deversified and in an acceptable position to handle one crisies at a time - which is the stated goal of my portfolio. So, considering all of this I would like to whish my copiers and everyone following me a very succesful 2026. I am excited to work for your portolio though the upcoming challenges.