Michael Jensen @GenesisGains: "Hello everyone, Yesterday’s FOMC was anything..."

Denmark

Hello everyone, Yesterday’s FOMC was anything but uneventful. In fact, it may turn out to be a key turning point. The message was clear: the Fed is not moving toward cuts — if anything, the bias is shifting the other way. Inflation risks are picking up again, driven by energy and tariffs, and several members are already leaning more hawkish. So while the market is still hoping for easier policy, the Fed is increasingly concerned about inflation. On top of that, Powell signaled he intends to remain within the Fed beyond his chairmanship. That’s unusual — and it makes a quick policy shift toward aggressive cuts much less likely. In short: the “easy money” narrative just took a hit. Now look at the bigger picture: $OIL keeps rising Long-term yields are pushing higher (30Y ~5%) Inflation expectations are ticking up And bonds + $GOLD are not acting as safe havens That last point is important. When even safe assets are being sold, it often points to liquidity stress — markets raising cash rather than rotating. And yet… equities are still near highs. The $NSDQ100 briefly hit a new ATH overnight (27,490) but has already pulled back (~27,200), while the $SPX500 (~7,140) still hasn’t confirmed a breakout. That divergence is worth watching. Under the surface, breadth remains weak. A small group of stocks — mainly big tech — is doing most of the lifting. At times, we’re even seeing more stocks at lows than highs despite the index strength. That’s not a healthy structure. Earnings are holding things up for now, but even here the picture isn’t perfect: Massive AI spending (~$ 130 Billions ) continues Free cash flow is getting squeezed in some cases And the key question remains: where is the return on all that investment? AI is clearly powerful — but so far, it looks more beneficial for users than for the companies funding it. At the same time, rising yields and energy costs are quietly increasing the cost of everything — from financing to infrastructure. That pressure builds over time. And then there’s geopolitics. Any renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz feeds directly into oil → inflation → yields. So we’re left with a tricky setup: Rising yields Rising oil Weak breadth No clear safe haven Indices near highs That combination usually doesn’t last forever. For now, liquidity is still supporting the market — but the warning signs are getting louder. Clear & Simple Recap Quick update: The Fed is not preparing to cut rates — inflation risks (especially from oil) are keeping pressure on. At the same time, markets are still near highs, but mostly driven by a few big tech stocks. We’re also seeing some warning signs: Yields rising Oil rising Weak participation from most stocks No strong “safe haven” behavior So while things look strong on the surface, the environment underneath is becoming more fragile. Nothing is breaking yet — but it’s getting more challenging.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.