Selim Boukezouh
France
4m
πŸ“ˆ Introductory Summary – Heading Towards the Next Peak The crypto market is poised to enter a pivotal phase. The April 2024 halving has reduced BTC issuance to 3.125 BTC/block, inherently increasing the asset's scarcity. This event, combined with: β€’ Institutional adoption via spot ETFs β€’ A shifting macroeconomic backdrop β€’ Historical cyclical data ...sets the stage for a major bull run, likely the most structured in Bitcoin's history. 🧩 Strategic Analysis of the 4 Key Factors πŸ”„ 1. Halving Cycle – Structural Catalyst Historically, every halving (2012, 2016, 2020) has been followed by a bull run lasting 12 to 18 months, peaking 12 to 18 months after the halving event. πŸ“† 2024: Halving on April 19th ⏳ If the pattern repeats: potential peak between April 2025 and October 2025 🎯 The halving is a programmed scarcity engine this time amplified by growing institutional demand. 🏦 2. Institutional Adoption & Spot ETFs – Explosive Demand Since January 2024, spot BTC ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) have attracted over 15 billion in net inflows. These products make BTC more accessible to traditional investors (pension funds, family offices, etc.). A growing portion of the supply is locked in custodial vehicles, creating a liquidity squeeze. ➑️ Consequence: For the first time, institutional demand structurally exceeds supply. 🌐 3. Macroeconomic Context – Liquidity Window to Watch πŸ“‰ Inflation is decreasing, and markets are anticipating a return of liquidity: Rate cuts Quantitative easing Weaker dollar Historically, crypto bull runs align with periods of monetary easing. πŸ“Š 4. Historical Data & Sentiment – Does the Model Repeat? Each cycle follows a fractal structure: Accumulation β†’ Breakout β†’ Euphoria β†’ Top β†’ Drop On average, BTC reaches a new peak 18 to 24 months after its previous low. 2015 β†’ 2017: +2,150% 2018 β†’ 2021: +1,800% 2022 (bottom ~15.5k) β†’ ???? With ETFs and extreme scarcity, a temporary overshoot to 120k–150k becomes credible. ⚠️ Forecasting Limitations: Past cycles don’t guarantee future performance though they remain a reliable framework. Risks to watch: Macro shocks Liquidity crises Sudden regulation Overheated bubbles βœ… Key variables to monitor: Global liquidity & sentiment. 🧠 Analyst Conclusion We are entering a phase where long-term fundamentals and short-term flows are fully aligned. πŸ‘‰ For rational investors, 2024–2025 is likely one of the last historic windows to capture a complete β€œearly BTC” cycle within a regulated framework.
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