Veronika Tykhonova @Wise_woman: "𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙝 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝘿𝙤𝙚𝙨𝙣’𝙩..."

United Arab Emirates

𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙝 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙥: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝘿𝙤𝙚𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙍𝙚𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙊𝙗𝙫𝙞𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙨 A war broke out in the Middle East. Gold fell. Defense stocks dropped. March closed down for me. I’ll be honest — that’s not what I expected. Last month, I wrote about keeping exposure to gold and defense as geopolitical hedges. The event I was positioned for actually happened. But by the time it became real news, institutional money had already been preparing for it for months. Gold had already rallied strongly. European defense stocks had already been re-rated to much richer valuations. Once the headlines arrived, there was less left to price in and more reason to take profits. Then came the second-order effect: the oil shock. Rising energy prices reignited inflation fears, pushed yields and the dollar higher, and that created pressure on gold despite the geopolitical backdrop. That’s the part many investors miss: the event itself may support the thesis, but the macro consequences can overwhelm the trade. The market doesn’t reward being right about the event. It rewards being early enough. What softened the blow was the defensive bond structure I’ve kept in place. The hedges didn’t work this time, but capital protection still did. Going into April, valuations look more grounded. The long-term thesis hasn’t changed — the entry point may simply be becoming more attractive again. On to April.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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