Jean Francois Pascal
Romania
8m
Quick take Tesla’s May rally has pushed TSLA back toward the mid-$300s after an April trough near $220. Fresh catalysts—an imminent robotaxi launch, a temporary easing of U.S.–China tariffs, and internal cost breakthroughs—have flipped sentiment even though automotive margins remain thin. If Tesla executes on autonomy, energy storage and low-cost battery tech, a pathway to $2,000 (split-adjusted) over the next several years is not fantasy but a stretched-yet-defensible bull case. Details below, plus the live chart for context. Why the stock just jumped Robotaxi timeline pulled forward. Tesla confirmed Austin will see the first employee robotaxis on 12 June 2025, weeks ahead of schedule, with public rides “by late June.” Investors immediately priced in higher future software margins. 90-day tariff truce with China. A surprise deal slashed reciprocal tariffs to 10 % through August, lowering cost of Chinese-sourced components and calming macro fears. Musk refocuses on Tesla. Media reports note he is “pulling back from U.S. politics,” easing governance worries that had weighed on the brand and the share price. Battery cost milestone. Tesla’s Texas line now produces 4680 cells cheaper than outside suppliers, a key step toward sub-$25 k vehicle economics. Energy storage hockey-stick. Deployments doubled in 2024 to 31.4 GWh, showing Tesla can grow a capital-light, high-margin Megapack business even as car volumes flatten. India optionality. Management is scouting a $2-3 bn CKD plant capable of 500 k cars a year, cracking the world’s third-largest auto market. The road to $2,000 1. Autonomy & software ARK’s updated model attributes ≈60 % of Tesla’s 2029 value to a global robotaxi network, implying $2 k-plus per share in its base case. If Tesla scales FSD licensing or takes a 20 % cut on fleet gross bookings, a ~$2 T robotaxi TAM could support >$120 bn in annual EBITDA. 2. Energy & AI infra Megapack backlogs extend into 2027; at $500 k per unit, 60 GWh shipped could add $30 bn revenue with mid-teens margins. Dojo/Cortex compute clusters may open an AWS-like rental stream while slashing FSD training cost. 3. Manufacturing leverage The in-house 4680 milestone plus a shift to dry-electrode lines targets -$70 kWh pack cost by 2026, restoring double-digit auto margins even in a price-cut world. Add another gigafactory in India and incremental volume could lift EBIT $8-10 bn at scale. TSLA’s latest pop is more than a short squeeze—it reflects real strategic wins in autonomy, batteries and geopolitics. But the march from $350 to $2 k demands near-perfect execution across at least three new multi-billion-dollar markets. I’m long, yet trimming on rips and adding on weakness. Do your own DD, manage risk, and buckle up—Tesla’s volatility will keep rewarding the patient and punishing the complacent.
null
.