Pietari Laurila
United Arab Emirates
1m
ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 27 ᴏᴄᴛᴏʙᴇʀ 2025 The short-term outlook for the market remains positive. The S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs, trading within a strong trend channel established in early 2023. Although the market is entering the seasonally strongest period of the year, investor sentiment remains cautious, which suggests the rally may have room to run. edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed With gold overbought and correcting after a +50% run, it might be the S&P 500 that investors will turn to next to hedge against dollar debasement. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/where-next-for-markets-after-the In the short run, all signs point to higher stocks. But in the longer run, the fabulous performance of stocks over the past few years sets the market up for a disappointing next 10 years. Shiller CAPE, a measure of the US stock market’s valuation, has returned to levels last seen during the late-1990s technology bubble. That doesn’t imply an imminent correction, but it does suggest limited upside for long-term investors. www.multpl.com/shiller-pe The good news is that investors are not forced to invest in US equities: the really interesting story lies elsewhere. Asset manager GMO argues that now is the best opportunity in 35 years to allocate capital smartly into undervalued assets. They recommend going long non-US stocks, deep value stocks and Japanese small-cap stocks, while shorting expensive Growth stocks. www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/a-second-opinion-on-the-6040-default_insights/ I too find no shortage of undervalued assets globally. European banks, the current core of the portfolio, trade below 10 times earnings despite record profitability. European real estate companies can be purchased at steep discounts to the value of their underlying assets. Emerging-market bonds offer high real yields that could deliver outsized gains as rates decline. And the Japanese yen remains undervalued just as the country’s monetary policy begins to normalise. In short, it is a good time to be an investor. 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 YTD +30.5% 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Sodexo was replaced by DNB. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.
A Second Opinion on the 60/40 Default
www.gmo.com
By avoiding expensive assets and capitalizing on undervalued opportunities, a valuation-aware, dynamic asset allocation strategy can help investors navigate market cycles with more resilience.
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