Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙧𝙪𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜. 𝘼𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣...."

Italy

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙧𝙪𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜. 𝘼𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣. 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙗𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙚. 🚀 New highs. Fresh enthusiasm. Risk appetite rising, led by tech. And a narrative that feels already written: the words of Donald Trump are fueling hope — 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙖𝙧 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙚𝙣𝙙, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙗𝙚 “𝙗𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙗𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙚.” 🕊️🕊️🕊️🌈🌈🌈 Sounds perfect. Looks perfect. Or maybe not. Because while prices are rising, fundamentals are telling a less reassuring story: ⚠️ Energy is climbing – oil remains at elevated levels ⚠️ Commodities are rallying (including aluminum, copper, fertilizers, plastics) ⚠️ Inflation is starting to resurface ⚠️ Energy routes remain vulnerable ⚠️ Critical reserves, like jet fuel in Europe, are limited This is not a resolved scenario. It’s a fragile equilibrium. And when inflation moves… central banks don’t sit still. Higher rates. Tighter financial conditions. An economy that may not be as resilient as it was a few months ago. 𝙎𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝙦𝙪𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨: 👉 is the market anticipating… or ignoring? 👉 Equities are pricing a constructive scenario 👉 Bonds remain anchored to inflation risk • The Fed has little room for rate cuts • Interest rates are still consistent with an economy that isn’t slowing enough • The ECB maintains a restrictive stance, with potential moves ahead • The long end of the curve remains exposed 𝙄𝙣 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩: the cost of money isn’t easing enough to fully justify this equity move. Looking at global data: 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴 • Economic activity is stable, but lacks momentum • Labor market still resilient • Input costs rising → margin pressure 𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦 • Weak and uneven industrial activity • Germany still struggling • High exposure to energy costs 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢 • External demand softening • Imports rising sharply → price pressures building 𝘔𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘦, 𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴: • US indices are back near their highs • Nasdaq has moved quickly from oversold to overbought 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘦𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵. 𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘢 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺. Right now, the market is focusing on: ✔️ geopolitical easing ✔️ stable yields ✔️ resilient growth While downplaying: ❌ energy-driven inflation risk ❌ central bank rigidity ❌ cyclical weakness in key economies 𝙎𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙦𝙪𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙬𝙝𝙤’𝙨 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙡𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙪𝙥 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙝𝙤𝙡𝙙. Because the chain is simple: High energy → persistent inflation Persistent inflation → higher rates for longer Higher rates → pressure on valuations And yet… prices keep rising. That’s the key point: 👉 the market doesn’t need to be consistent. It just needs to move. Which is why taking sides is often a mistake. ❌ Chasing the rally out of FOMO ❌ Positioning against it out of conviction Both are mental shortcuts. ✔️ Build a solid framework ✔️ Adapt to the environment ✔️ Manage risk consciously Because the market can stay disconnected from fundamentals longer than you expect. And in that time, it’s not about having a thesis. It’s about staying consistent with your decisions and not getting pulled into the noise. Thank you for your support! $OIL $ALUMINUM $NSDQ100 $GOLD

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.