Michael Jensen @GenesisGains: "Copier Update! Hello everyone, So we finally..."

Denmark

Copier Update! Hello everyone, So we finally cracked double digits, with the portfolio now sitting at +10.13% YTD. That puts us roughly in line with where we were during 2025 at this stage, so now we simply need the market to cooperate, and 2026 could turn into another very fruitful year. Year-to-date I’ve closed 1,432 trades, with 363 of them coming during the last month alone, which is perfectly in line with the usual 4,000–5,000 trades annually. Some of the strongest performers over the last month or two were $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.), $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc), $QCOM (Qualcomm Inc) and $MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd), all of which delivered gains above 100%, with a few even pushing beyond 150% since the market bottomed at the end of March. As many of you know, I significantly reduced exposure around a month ago and lowered trade sizes across several positions as market breadth in the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 started deteriorating. More stocks were rolling over than moving higher, despite the indices still looking strong on the surface. Instead of blindly following the indices, I focused heavily on sector rotation and individual price action. That allowed me to increase exposure to the strongest names while scaling back weaker positions — and so far that approach has worked very well. I’ve never been a huge fan of aggressively timing the market. With the strategy I follow, it’s far more important to adapt exposure according to market conditions and price action rather than trying to perfectly predict every move. This year we’ve already seen things that historically happen maybe once every few decades. In environments like this, the key is often simply to stay flexible: add to the winners, reduce weaker positions, and avoid becoming emotionally attached to narratives. That said, I wouldn’t even call many of the lagging positions “losers.” Most are still fundamentally strong companies that I believe will reward patience over time. Right now though, market participants are crowding aggressively into semiconductors and AI-related momentum trades, trying to catch the next explosive leg higher. A large part of the market rally has also been fueled by headlines surrounding Iran negotiations and optimistic Trump comments suggesting progress is being made. Every time markets wobble on negative news, another optimistic headline suddenly appears. Meanwhile, military activity continues in the background — but according to the headlines, everything is apparently “great.” The market loves supportive narratives, whether they fully reflect reality or not. At some point though, gravity tends to return. Even with strong earnings and endless AI optimism, reality is slowly starting to push back. AI infrastructure costs are exploding, several major companies are beginning to pass those costs on to consumers, and consumers themselves are already under pressure — something recent confidence data clearly reflects. Inflation is also starting to tick higher again. So right now we have a classic battle between euphoria and reality. From a technical perspective, I still believe the probability of a larger correction continues to increase. Ironically, that would likely create significant opportunity for us, because it would allow me to increase position sizes again and raise exposure at far more attractive levels for the next move higher. For now though, I’m mostly staying patient, monitoring conditions closely, and taking profits here and there while keeping the engines running. So far, the statistics speak for themselves. I mentioned earlier this year that 2026 would likely become far more volatile and exciting than 2025 — and so far that has absolutely been the case. We’ve also entered a period with a new Fed Chair, and historically those transitions have often coincided with elevated market volatility. On top of that, we are moving through a midterm election year, which also tends to create larger swings in sentiment and positioning around this stage of the cycle. So keep those seatbelts fastened — we may still be in for quite a ride. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to drop them below and I’ll gladly get back to you. Mike

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.