Ana Sarda Rodrigues @nintingale: "𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – 𝙅𝙪𝙣𝙚 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲:..."

Germany

𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 – 𝙅𝙪𝙣𝙚 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝘼 𝙍𝙤𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙤 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙨? 𝘾𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙖, 𝙊𝙞𝙡 & 𝘼𝙄 Dear All, A hard month—emerging markets and energy, my two biggest bets, both fell at once. Here’s why, and what I changed. 📈 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙡𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙨 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹 On June 17 the US and Iran signed an interim 14-point framework (the “Islamabad Memorandum”): the Strait of Hormuz reopens toll-free, the ceasefire extends 60 days, the naval blockade lifts, and a 60-day clock starts on sanctions and nuclear talks. Iran freezes its program and gets sanctions relief, frozen-asset release, and a reported $300B fund. It’s interim—Lebanon could still break it—but it’s what knocked oil down ~38%. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗣𝗶𝘃𝗼𝘁𝘀 Warsh’s first FOMC held at 3.50%–3.75% but turned hawkish: the dot plot now sees 3.8% year-end (vs 3.4% in March), flipping the “one cut” call to a likely hike. Inflation outlook lifted to 3.6% headline / 3.3% core. Equities sold it. 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗲? 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 None of it changes the big picture. The economy is still running hot in aggregate, so I stay fully invested rather than hiding in cash. 📊 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝘼𝙙𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 & 𝙇𝙤𝙤𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝘼𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙙 Why did both legs fall together? China and oil should move inversely—cheap oil helps China. And Washington pulling Anthropic’s top models (Fable 5, Mythos 5) from all foreign users hands an edge to China’s cheaper, open models ($BABA anyone?). Oil, meanwhile, is still trading on paper: with the SPR at its lowest since 1983, a ~40% drop on a signed-but-not-yet-physical deal looks early—the real supply hit hasn’t landed. Portfolio: +4% in May, −6% in June, +4% YTD—my worst monthly drawdown in a long time. I’m positioned for what’s coming, not what just happened. • S&P 500 (SPY): +9.2% YTD • Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +11.7% YTD (both down on the month) Weights below are current; the figure in parentheses is the change in percentage points vs the May 19 snapshot. Here are the 4 sectors I am to highlight this month: 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: 𝟮𝟮.𝟲𝟰% ( increase by +𝟯.𝟬𝟮%) Hardest hit—$KWEB is below its April 2025 lows, −8% on the month. I’ve been buying back after trimming. Earnings-growth expectations for the HK/KWEB names jumped from ~6% to 11%, revisions have turned positive, and property prices are firming. In a real HK bull market the multiple can stretch to 15x; we’re near 10x. Earnings are set to inflect higher after the property bust. Full China write-up coming. 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆: 𝟭𝟴.𝟭𝟲% (decreased by −𝟯.𝟮𝟲%) Took some profit—not enough—and moved part into EM. But I don’t buy oil holding at pre-war levels; I think we’re early in a long oil bull market, war or not. Hormuz traffic may improve but won’t fully normalize. Refining, oil & gas, chemicals and metals out of the Gulf are all seeing earnings revised higher. 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲: 𝟱.𝟵𝟲% (increased by +𝟭.𝟮𝟴%) Everyone expected banks to get hit again. Wrong. Government spending, AI capex, reshoring and an energy shock all push inflation up—we just printed 4.2% CPI. A 6% 10-year and 75bp+ of hikes aren’t a stretch; the ECB has hiked (first since 2023) and the BoJ went to 1%. Higher rates are a gift to banks—a 2% spread is easier at 6% than 4%. We’ll likely underestimate their earnings again, like post-COVID. 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 / 𝗔𝗜: 𝟭𝟴.𝟬𝟴% (increased by +𝟭𝟯.𝟯𝟬%) Biggest move—but mostly Groupon, which I’ve been building, not chasing hyperscalers. The rest are small positions that adds deep down the AI supply chain: ASML, $WOLF (Wolfspeed Inc), $TENB (Tenable Holdings Inc), $ESI (Element Solutions Inc), $SMTC (Semtech Corp.), $4063.T (Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd.), plus robotics via $AMBA (Ambarella Inc). Why the edges? The center looks priced: hyperscaler capex ran ~$240bn→~$416bn in 2025, heading toward ~$1T by 2028, and it’s hard to surprise from here. Google did an equity raise to fund AI, Meta may follow. Not a crash call—just that the financing levers are mostly pulled. I’d rather own the supply chain than the names that must keep outspending expectations. 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 $𝗫𝗡𝗘𝗧 (𝗫𝘂𝗻𝗹𝗲𝗶): the lockup on Arashi (Insta360) is now over, XNET´s stake (8%) it is worth alone 750M, while entire´s XNET market cap is 300M. This one of those unique opportunities the market is taking very long to recognized, but it will eventually. This is $20 stock trading at $5 for no reason. $𝗤𝗨𝗥𝗘 & $𝗖𝗟𝗣𝗧: The FDA accepted uniQure’s 3-year AMT-130 data ax an accelerated-approval filing in Huntington’s desease after it slowed progression 75% at 36 months. IQURE’s prior $70 high (~+100% from here); CLPT should ride the same tailwind (prior high ~$30).s I am down on the month, positioned for a world not fully here yet: cheap oil I don’t trust, a China recovery the tape hasn’t paid for, and higher-for-longer inflation that rewards banks and real assets. Uncomfortable, but deliberate. These are my own views, not advice—size your own risk.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.