Greenbull Investments Sarl
Greenbull Investments Sarl
Switzerland
3mo
Two weeks ago I left the boat about to find out if the water was deep enough, a Fed that might hike, the biggest IPO in history hitting the tape, all in the same five days. Here's how it went: the Fed didn't hike, SpaceX turned into a casino, oil quietly fell 8%, and the S&P closed the week at a new high. Water's deep. Or the boat just hasn't hit the rock yet. Start with the Fed, because it was the whole reason last week mattered. Warsh's first meeting. They held, 3.5 to 3.75, unanimous, so Wednesday's "do they hike" panic didn't pay off. But the dot plot is where the message lives: nine of eighteen officials now pencil in a hike before year-end, six of them want two. The conversation didn't swing back to cuts. It moved to "not yet." Warsh leaned hawkish, kept hammering "price stability," scrapped the forward guidance, and the tape did the obvious thing , yields up, big tech down, S&P off 1.2% to 7,420. Then Thursday it bought the whole thing back and closed at 7,500, a new high. Same move as every week this month: panic on the catalyst, undo it next session. A Fed pivoting from "when do they cut" to "the next move is up" got digested in about 24 hours. Here's the part nobody's talking about, and it's the one that matters. Oil fell 8% this week, Brent back under $81, WTI under $78. The single variable that drove the entire tape two weeks ago, Iran, through oil, through inflation, through what it forces the Fed to do, just relaxed, hard. Israel and Hezbollah agreed a ceasefire; Iran left the ships in the Strait of Hormuz alone two nights running. That's the genuinely bullish development of the week, the thing tightening the Fed's screws loosened, and the market barely looked up, because everyone was glued to the Warsh presser and the rocket stock. Which is the mascot of this entire moment. SpaceX priced at $135 ten days ago, closed day one at $161, ran to $225 by Tuesday, and has since bled back to $185. The largest listing in history became a meme stock in three sessions. Nobody re-rated Starlink over a long weekend; that's positioning and adrenaline in a rocket costume, the same crowded trade from a month ago, fresh name. So here's what I'm keeping. A market that ate a hawkish hold with a hike sitting on the dot plot, watched the biggest IPO ever blow 18% off its peak, and still closed at an all-time high, while the one real piece of good news, oil cooling and the war de-escalating, got ignored, is not a market pricing fundamentals. It's pricing momentum, while its own central bank tells it the next move tightens. The signal and the noise traded places this week. The boat's still crowded; it's just sailing now with a captain who keeps mentioning the rocks. Thursday the next number lands: core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, first read since Warsh said a hike is live. And the US–Iran talks in Geneva just collapsed, so the oil relief that saved this week is one headline from reversing. I wonder if it will end up like during covid, everything great until inflation caught up to everyone and and then it's a silent depression for anyone who doesn't own assets, while the assets themselves keep climbing because they've become the only inflation hedge left
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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