James Campion @campervans: ""Gold's New Floor: Physical Bids..."

United Arab Emirates

"Gold's New Floor: Physical Bids Overwhelm Financial Flows" Gold's bull case is undergoing a structural transformation. The World Gold Council's Q1 data confirms the market is no longer hostage to Western ETF flows, with a powerful physical bid from Asian investors and central banks now setting the floor. This demand composition shift has profound implications for gold's price stability and resilience. A TALE OF TWO MARKETS: EAST VS. WEST Physical demand is overwhelming weakness in Western paper markets. While North American gold ETFs saw outflows of 16t in Q1, Asian funds alone added 84t. This dynamic is driven by record-breaking retail investment: • Global bar and coin demand hit 474t, the second-highest quarter on record. • China was the primary engine, with bar and coin demand soaring to an all-time quarterly high of 207t. • In India, bar and coin investment jumped 34% y/y to 62t, nearly matching jewellery demand for the first time—a significant structural shift. CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN STRATEGIC BUYERS The official sector bid continues unabated, driven by geopolitical risk and diversification needs. Central banks added a net 244t in Q1. This demand persisted despite tactical sales from Turkey (approx. 70t) and Russia (22t), underscoring the strategic, non-price-sensitive nature of the buying. The WGC maintains its full-year forecast for net purchases between 700-900t. Why it matters to us: gold's support levels are now anchored by strategic, less price-sensitive buyers. Dips caused by Western paper market liquidations may represent buying opportunities, as the physical bid from the East and the official sector provides a resilient backstop. Source: World Gold Council $GOLD , $GLD (SPDR Gold) , $SLV (iShares Silver Trust) , $GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.