Simone Rizzetto @SimoneRizzetto88: "📊 PORTFOLIO UPDATE: Hawkish Fed..."

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📊 PORTFOLIO UPDATE: Hawkish Fed Pivot, Biotech Breakthroughs, and Semi Momentum 🚀 One week since the last update and the macro landscape shifted in an unexpected direction. The Fed held rates steady on June 17, but the new dot plot sent shockwaves: 9 of 18 officials now expect a rate hike by year-end. The market is digesting a hawkish pivot while biotech and semis staged impressive comebacks. Portfolio holding up. YTD +8.83%, MTD -1.24%. 📌 Macro: The Fed Surprise The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% as expected, but Chair Kevin Warsh dropped forward guidance entirely. The new dot plot signals potential tightening, a stark reversal from the easing cycle markets had priced in. Meanwhile, the BoE held at 3.75% with two MPC members voting for a hike. The US-Iran peace deal continues to ease energy inflation pressures, with oil settling around $79/barrel, but rate expectations are resetting higher. 📌 Biotech: FDA Green Lights and Momentum Moves ➤ $MRNA (Moderna Inc): The biggest biotech story of the week. On June 18, the FDA advisory committee voted unanimously 9-0 in favor of Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, bucking previous FDA leadership's skeptical stance. The stock hit a 52-week high of $67.74, up 117% YTD. Target FDA action date is August 5. Moderna also overhauled leadership with Ester Banque appointed Chief Commercial Officer ahead of 2027-2028 product launches. ➤ $HIMS (Hims & Hers Health Inc): Absolutely explosive week. Barclays raised the price target to $39 from $29 on June 18 citing GLP-1 growth. The stock jumped nearly 10% on the news, then rallied another 5% the following day. With the Novo Nordisk partnership driving 35% traffic growth and the July 23-24 FDA PCAC meeting on peptide therapies looming, Barron's estimates HIMS could capture $440M of the $2.2B peptides market. My position gained over 54% in the period. ➤ $GH (Guardant Health Inc): The FDA approved the expanded Guardant360 Liquid CDx with a 740+ gene panel, a 100-fold expansion. The American Cancer Society now includes Shield blood tests in their CRC screening guidelines for 50M+ Americans. Stock continues its impressive run, up 167% year-over-year. 📌 Pharma: Analyst Support and Pipeline Progress ➤ $UNH (UnitedHealth): Leerink raised PT to $462 on June 17 citing margin recovery. Q2 earnings date set for July 16. The board announced $3B in AI investment through 2027 for Optum automation, and medical care ratio stabilized at 83.9%. Stock trading near 52-week highs with strong analyst consensus. ➤ $GSK.L (GlaxoSmithKline): FDA approved Utebzi on June 17, first oral carbapenem for complicated UTIs. The company also announced the $10.6B Nuvalent acquisition adding three lung cancer products, and expanded the share buyback with treasury holdings at 6.64% of voting rights. Q2 earnings on July 28. ➤ $PFE (Pfizer): CFO Dave Denton stepping down August 15, though 2026 revenue guidance of $59.5-$62.5B was reaffirmed. CEO Albert Bourla targeting high-single-digit growth return by 2029. The 6.82% dividend yield remains compelling at roughly 9x forward earnings. 🚀 Semis: Recovery and Strategic Acquisitions ➤ $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc): Acquired memory optimization company Mext on June 15 to address AI memory bottlenecks. Bernstein raised PT to $600 on June 17 citing a CPU renaissance, and Barron's named Lisa Su top CEO recognizing 24% annual sales growth. After the semiconductor crash earlier in June, AMD surged roughly 7% on the peace deal alone. Valuation starts to leave little room for any disappointment, I closed half of my position with nearly +300% profit. ➤ $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR): Closed at $462 near a 52-week high of $465. Amkor-TSMC partnership announced for decade-long US semiconductor packaging expansion in Arizona. Marvell confirmed it will use TSMC's A14 1.4nm process for next-gen AI chips. TipRanks consensus sees $500/share as achievable. 📌 Portfolio Moves Added $PHP.L (Primary Health Properties) (Primary Health Properties), a UK-listed healthcare REIT, diversifying into the healthcare real estate space to further boost my investment thesis on aging population. Added on $MSFT (Microsoft). Closed $BTC mostly to simplify my portfolio and not dilute my focus. 📌 My Stance The hawkish Fed pivot is a meaningful shift in the macro narrative. With 9 of 18 officials signaling a potential 2026 rate hike, the higher-for-longer theme is evolving into higher-than-expected. That creates headwinds for rate-sensitive sectors but supports the case for healthcare's defensive characteristics. I am starting to play a bit defensively on the AI thesis. Valuation of some stocks are hard to explain even if I have always been bullish on AI. $SPX500 $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.