Rudolf De Leeuw @RudolfDeLeeuw: "𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁..."

Netherlands

𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗱𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘄? 🌍📈 The situation in the Middle East has become extremely difficult for investors to read. The US and Iran have agreed on a framework intended to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That initially created optimism, pushed oil prices lower and supported stock markets. 🕊️ But the situation is far from settled. Iran now says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz again because it believes parts of the ceasefire agreement have been violated, particularly in relation to the fighting in Lebanon. The US disputes that the waterway is completely closed. At the same time, American and Iranian representatives are holding talks in Switzerland, meaning the diplomatic route remains open. However, President Trump is once again threatening military action if Iran keeps Hormuz closed or continues supporting attacks through its regional allies. ⚠️ Are we moving towards lasting peace, or are we only one incident away from another major escalation? 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘂𝘇 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 🛢️ Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important routes for oil and gas supplies. A credible and lasting reopening could & will push oil prices lower, reduce inflationary pressure and give central banks more room to avoid additional interest-rate increases. That would generally support equities, particularly technology, consumer and growth stocks. 📈 A renewed blockade or military escalation could have the opposite effect. Higher energy prices could increase inflation, pressure corporate profit margins and bring interest-rate concerns back into the market. 📉 Still, geopolitics is not the only market driver. Strong corporate earnings, AI-related growth and continued investor demand could keep stocks moving higher, even if the peace negotiations fail. That is exactly why the next market move is so difficult to predict. 𝗔𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘃𝗲 +𝟮𝟬% 𝗬𝗧𝗗 🚀 While markets are attempting to price in all these possible outcomes, my portfolio has already moved above +20% in 2026: 2026 YTD: +20.22% 2025: +23.39% 2024: +37.22% 2023: +139.22% If 2026 finishes above +20%, it will become the fourth consecutive year in which my portfolio has generated a return of more than +20%. 💪 If the current lead is maintained, 2026 could potentially also become another year in which the portfolio generates more than 1.5 times the return of the S&P 500. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦𝗢 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 🛢️ One of the key positions to watch is the USO oil fund, which is currently trading around 115. My expectation remains that USO could move towards approximately 75 during the year if the peace process holds and oil supplies through Hormuz normalize. If that scenario develops, this position alone could potentially add around another 5% to the portfolio performance. Of course, a renewed escalation would make the road towards that target considerably more volatile. 𝗦𝗼, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁? 🤔 Will diplomacy survive, will Hormuz fully reopen and will stocks continue moving higher? Or have markets become too optimistic, with renewed conflict and higher oil prices waiting around the corner? Vote below and explain your reasoning in the comments. 👇 A like is always appreciated, because it helps this update reach more people and motivates me to keep spending time and effort on sharing my market views and portfolio updates. 🙏 $DJ30 $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $RTY $OIL $USO (United States Oil Fund) 🕊️ Peace, stocks up 📈 🕊️ Peace, stocks down 📉 ⚔️ No peace, stocks up 📈 ⚔️ No peace, stocks down 📉

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

🕊️ Peace, stocks up 📈

100.00%

🕊️ Peace, stocks down 📉Het

100.00%

⚔️ No peace, stocks up 📈

100.00%

⚔️ No peace, stocks down 📉

100.00%