Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚..."

Italy

𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨, 𝙬𝙚𝙡𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠. 𝙐.𝙎. 𝙟𝙤𝙗 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙨𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨: 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙪𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨. 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙮 𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙜𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙨 🟡 ⚒️ ᴛʜᴇ ᴜ.ꜱ. ʟᴀʙᴏʀ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ is showing increasingly clear signs of weakness. In August, Nonfarm Payrolls rose by just 22,000 jobs, well below expectations (75,000), while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. Revisions to June and July data confirm that this slowdown is structural, not temporary. This cooling in employment is accompanied by other negative signals: a decline in job openings (JOLTS) and a rise in layoffs. 🥶 🔻 ɪᴍᴍᴇᴅɪᴀᴛᴇ ɪᴍᴘᴀᴄᴛ ᴏɴ ꜰɪɴᴀɴᴄɪᴀʟ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛꜱ 🔻 • Treasuries: Yields tumbled, with the 2Y at 3.509% (5-month low) and the 10Y at 4.076%, driven by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut on September 17. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 90% probability of a 25bps cut, with increased odds for two more cuts by year-end. • Gold: Surged 1.15% to $3,589/oz, a new all-time high, supported by a weaker dollar and falling yields. Silver also closed higher $GOLD • Equities: Initial rebound (“bad news = good news”), but caution soon prevailed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower, reflecting fears of slowing growth and weaker earnings ahead. $SPX500 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙁𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨 $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) Investors are buying back into Treasuries. However, next week’s CPI data could shift the picture. A core CPI of +0.3% m/m is expected — any upside surprise could send the 10Y yield spiking back toward 4.5%, as seen in 2024. 𝘿𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝘽𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 The Fed appears to have the green light to cut rates, but remains cautious amid tariff risks, a growing deficit, and goods-driven inflation. The real challenge: balancing monetary stimulus with price stability, all in a global context still plagued by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty (Russia-Ukraine war, U.S. tariffs, legal disputes over Trump-era policies). 🔍 𝙄𝙣 𝙎𝙪𝙢𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙮 The U.S. labor market is cooling. The time for rate cuts has come, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be enough for a soft landing, or if we're already heading for a sharper slowdown. Let’s remember there’s always a lag between rate changes and their real effects on the economy. 🙏 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙠𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩. ❓Has the Fed waited too long to cut rates❓

Yes, it’s too late

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No, everything under control

100.00%

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