Peter Roscoe
🚨 Meta Q3 2025 Earnings: Record Revenue, Tax Hit, and a Heavy AI Bet 🚨 Here’s everything that ᴀᴄᴛᴜᴀʟʟʏ ᴍᴀᴛᴛᴇʀꜱ from $META (Meta Platforms Inc) ’s latest report 👇 Headline Numbers • Revenue: $51.2 B (+26% YoY) — record top-line growth driven by strong ad pricing (+10%) and impressions (+14%). • Net Income: $2.7 B (-83% YoY) — but includes a $15.9 B non-cash tax charge from the “Big Beautiful Bill Act.” • Adjusted Net Income (ex-charge): $18.6 B (+19% YoY). • Operating Income: $20.5 B (+18% YoY) | Op margin: 40%. • Free Cash Flow: $10.6 B vs $15.5 B last year (heavy AI and infrastructure capex weighing short-term). • Cash & Investments: $44.5 B on hand. Segments 🔹 Family of Apps (FoA): $50.8 B revenue (+26% YoY); operating income $25 B ( +15%). User base still booming — 3.54 B daily actives (+8%). 🔹 Reality Labs (VR/AR): $470 M revenue (+74%) but still a $4.4 B loss — spending remains heavy ahead of next device cycle. AI & Capex Story Meta’s AI and compute build-out is exploding. CapEx for 2025 was guided up to $70 – 72 B ( + ~25% YoY ) as Meta ramps up AI infrastructure through its new Meta Superintelligence Labs. Expect even bigger spend in 2026. Zuck called it “the most exciting period in our history if we deliver even a fraction of what’s ahead.” Positives ✅ • Ad engine still on fire → revenue +26%, pricing +10%. • User growth strong across apps (+8% DAP). • AI investments should expand future monetization (ads, recommendations, AI assistants, glasses). • Huge cash pile and $4.5 B returned to shareholders via buybacks + dividends this quarter. • Adjusted EPS (ex-tax hit): $7.25 vs $6.03 last year → quietly a beat once you remove the one-off. Risks ⚠️ • CapEx ballooning → short-term FCF pressure. • Reality Labs losses persist (-$4.4 B this quarter). • Regulatory headwinds in EU (ads restrictions) and US (youth trials 2026). • Tax adjustments distort headline profit — expect optics volatility next few quarters. Outlook (Q4 Guide) Revenue $56 – 59 B expected (+22 – 29% YoY). Ad momentum to stay strong; Reality Labs to dip seasonally. Tax rate normalizing to 12 – 15%. Meta warns AI and infrastructure spend will ramp further in 2026. My Take Ignore the headline -83% earnings drop — it’s an accounting quirk. Underneath, Meta just delivered record revenue and a healthy $10 B FCF while building the AI infrastructure to power its next decade. If AI really is the new operating system of the internet, Meta’s position looks dominant. At current multiples, the market still isn’t pricing that in. That’s why I continue to hold a large position in $META — short-term spend, long-term pay-off. — Pete PS. Are you still holding $META ?
Hell Yes
100.00%
Hell No
100.00%
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