Dead cat bounce or early reversal?
Back in October, I flagged three catalysts that could flip the bearish momentum in crypto:
1️⃣ China–US trade deal (wrong!)
2️⃣ US gov shutdown resolution
3️⃣ pivot toward rate cuts and the end of QT
SPX and NASDAQ just corrected -4.2% and -6.0%, with many AI and Quantum names down 20–50% from highs. I see this as a technical correction, not a collapse.
Now, the catalysts are lining up:
✅ the Clarity Act (crypto bill) looks close to passing, with Coinbase launching an ICO platform as a clear vote of confidence.
✅ the US government is reopening, liquidity is returning, and stimulus cheques are potentially on the way.
✅ a December rate cut is 62% priced in, leaving room for upside surprise.
✅ corporate earnings remain solid, with 82% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations.
Do we have headwinds? Absolutely.
☠️ the 4-year cycle narrative
☠️ USD strength
☠️ slowing global liquidity
We have to decide whether the 6-month macro outlook is positive or negative for crypto. Not sentiment, but macro.
Based on the catalysts above, I believe the macro conditions are more positive than they are negative over the next 6 months.
Could BTC drop to ~$92K, SOL to ~$130, and ETH to ~$2800. For sure, and that should be considered.
Any lower? Unlikely, given macro conditions.
That said, even if it does drop to those levels, the risk-reward is skewed to the upside.
I have positioned accordingly.
✌🏽
Note: this is a shortened excerpt from my latest newsletter 👇🏽
project10x.substack.com/p/dead-cat-or-trend-reversal
Disclaimer: Copy Trading is not investment advice | Capital at risk | Past performance does not guarantee future results
$BTC$AUS200 $NASDAQ $UK100$GER40... Show More
Let's cross our fingers the Fed delivers a positive surprise and QE on short term treasuries. Should be the catalyst to take us into Christmas.
Earnings have been good but the valuations on AI driven stocks has lowered sentiment across the board on all assets. ... Show More
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Thu Jan 22 2026 12:26:27 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
