๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐๐น๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ โ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐๐
This chart shows the SOS Rule Recession Indicator, based on weekly U.S. insured unemployment data, following the framework by OโTrakoun & Scavette (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond).
๐น What youโre seeing in the chart
โข The blue line represents the SOS Rule value, measured in percentage points.
โข The red dashed line marks the recession threshold at 0.20 p.p.
โข Shaded areas indicate official NBER recession periods.
โข When the SOS Rule rises above 0.20, it signals a meaningful and sustained deterioration in the labor market.
๐น Why this matters
Because this indicator uses weekly administrative data (unemployment insurance claims), it tends to react earlier than traditional monthly labor market indicators. Historically, this framework has signaled every U.S. recession since the 1970s in the authorsโ analysis (no guarantee for the future).
๐น How I use it
This is not a buy or sell signal.
Itโs a macro risk-monitoring tool used alongside other indicators (like the Sahm Rule) to better understand where we are in the economic cycle.
๐ป Viewing note
The experience is much better on desktop, where you can hover over the chart to see exact values, dates, and historical context. Mobile works, but desktop gives the full picture.
๐ During the launch phase, access to this dashboard is free and it will remain forever free for my copiers.
๐ Full dashboard and methodology:
dbullintelligence.pro
โ ๏ธ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ธ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด
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Sat Feb 14 2026 15:34:24 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
