Harpinder Kang @HarpinderKang: "𝙀𝙣𝙙 𝙊𝙛 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙝 𝙖𝙣𝙙..."

United Kingdom

𝙀𝙣𝙙 𝙊𝙛 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙝 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚: Markets continue to be driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. There are clearly lots of short squeezes going on in lot of names but at the same time volatility remains elevated. With the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 closing at fresh highs late in June and bond markets remaining cautious, the setup into Q2 earnings season does look constructive. I will explain this below: 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨: ● Analyst Estimates Reset: Street analysts have trimmed their Q2 2025 S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts from 9.4% at quarter-end March down to just 5.0%. Historically, consensus cuts of 4–6 points tend to pave the way for actual beats when companies report; a setup I view as bullish into earnings season. ● Bond-Equity Sentiment Divergence: While equities hit new highs, Investment Grade corporate bond spreads have not retraced their late-2024/early-2025 lows. That divergence tells me risk-off investors aren’t yet overly complacent, a positive sign for equity durability. ● Fed Cut Odds Accelerate: Fed Funds futures now price in a 47% chance of three rate cuts this year, up from 42% just a week ago as dovish Fed commentary gains traction. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚: Position in AMD did the heavy lifting this month as my other holding like Google, Amazon, Salesforce and InMode mostly remain in consolidation mode. ASML also moved up a bit and I do believe ASML will ultimately get to $1000 level slowly. I think overall market might consolidate here a bit as stocks have moved up so much in such short period of time and now investors await earnings. Though there are still individual stocks that remain quite cheap compared to the overall market. I have lot of cash sitting on the sidelines to make use of any opportunity market gives me. 𝙁𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙏𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙨: Overall, I remain net long equities but maintain small index short positions as a hedge against headline driven volatility, especially around the 90-day China tariff pause expiration. I’m sitting on dry powder to opportunistically buy on meaningful dips and will adjust sizing based on the Fed’s policy path and trade deal developments. Looking forward to Q2 earnings kicks off in July. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask below. Thanks for reading.

2 Mentioned

SPX500

NSDQ100

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