Greg Melling @GregMelling: "🔎 Market Regime Shift? Or..."

Australia

🔎 Market Regime Shift? Or Just Noise? The last few weeks have been volatile — but underneath the surface, something more interesting is happening. We’re seeing: • Commodities holding structurally higher • Yields staying elevated • Equity markets grinding despite “higher for longer” • Gold & silver refusing to break trend • Energy quietly firming again This doesn’t look like a classic risk-off environment. It looks like capital rotating. For most of the past decade, leadership = mega-cap tech + falling rates. Now? We’re potentially entering a regime where: ✔ Hard assets matter ✔ Cash flow matters ✔ Balance sheets matter ✔ Geopolitics matters That’s a very different investing landscape. ⸻ 🏗 What I’m Watching Closely 1️⃣ Commodities & Real Assets Names like: $PSLV (Sprott Physical Silver Trust) $PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp) $XOM (Exxon-Mobil) $URA (Global X Uranium ETF) If inflation proves sticky and fiscal deficits remain aggressive globally, real assets remain structurally supported. 2️⃣ Global Cyclicals $CAT (Caterpillar) $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) Industrial build-out + AI infrastructure + reshoring trends are not short-term narratives. 3️⃣ China Repricing $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) $QFIN (Qifu Technology Inc) Sentiment has been crushed. Positioning is light. Policy tailwinds are building. ⸻ 📊 The Bigger Question Are we in: A) Late-cycle before a hard slowdown? B) Mid-cycle reset with sticky inflation? C) Early innings of a new commodity supercycle? My positioning reflects the view that volatility is the price of admission — not a reason to abandon structure. Risk score is elevated, yes. But structure > emotion. This is where disciplined portfolio construction matters. ⸻ 💬 What’s your base case for 2026? Deflation scare? Reacceleration? Stagflation 2.0? Curious where the crowd is leaning.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.