Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 30 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 30 ᴍᴀʀᴄʜ 2026 The MSCI World index has fallen 5.5% this year, largely owing to the war in Iran and the rise in interest rates caused by higher oil prices. The situation is little changed from last week, with oil still trading around $110 per barrel. At this level, oil is likely to reduce GDP growth by 0.5% in the U.S. and 1% in Europe. Applying a simple rule of thumb—that equity markets move by ten times the change in GDP—would imply declines of 5% in the U.S. and 10% in Europe. This is is more or less what has happened. So is now a good time to buy back in, given the fall already experienced? I would be cautious about drawing that conclusion. In my view, there remains a meaningful probability, perhaps around 50%, that the oil shock intensifies. If the Strait of Hormuz were to remain closed and oil were to move towards $200, the impact on oil importers such as Europe could be severe, with GDP contracting by 3–5%. In such a scenario, equity markets could fall 30–50%. Even if the Strait gradually reopens, the global economy is already in a late-cycle phase, so it is more vulnerable than usual, and a recession could still follow. I am positioning for a weak economy this year by overweighting cash and defensive sectors such as Healthcare and Consumer Staples. Opportunities may emerge to buy back into more cyclical areas such as Real Estate and Industrials should there be a clear resolution to the conflict. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 Positions have been opened in Reckitt Benckiser, Diageo, Nestle and Unilever. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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