Dimitris Plessas
Dimitris Plessas
Greece
1mo
๐— ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ณ | ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜† Asia closed mixed. KOSPI +4.3%, Shanghai +1.1%, Hang Seng flat, Nikkei -0.5%, ASX -0.5%. Korea did all the heavy lifting on chip-export optimism. Europe is on the back foot. STOXX 600 -0.2%, DAX -0.2%, CAC -1.0%, FTSE +0.1%. Oil bid, autos hit, defensives wanted. ๐Ÿฏ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ 1. Iran war drags into month two and crude pops. Brent +2.4% to $103.67, WTI +2.4% to $97.72 after Trump called Tehran's offer "totally unacceptable" and Netanyahu said the conflict is "not over." $XOM, $CVX, $SHEL.L and $BP.L all bid going into the US open. Pimco now thinks the Fed may have to raise rates, not cut them, if this energy shock keeps feeding inflation. Almost nobody is positioned for that. 2. $NVDA has now committed over $40bn to AI equity bets in 2026 alone, customer and shareholder in the same companies. Big tech's collective $725bn AI capex is draining cash; Goldman sees 2026 buybacks growing just 3%, well below the historical run-rate. The S&P 500 just printed a sixth straight up week, but breadth is brutal: $GOOG up 160% YTD is doing the work of an index. 3. $CBK.DE to cut 3,000 jobs while still fending off the $UCG.MI takeover. German banking is being forced to choose, consolidate or automate. Commerzbank picked both. Watch the spread; the deal is not dead. ๐—”๐—น๐˜€๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด KOSPI's +4.3% rip is the standout in Asia, semis-led. Gold -1.0% to $4,673 even with crude ripping, a rare risk-on / inflation-on combo. EUR/USD up to 1.18 as the dollar softens into oil. Saudi Aramco Q1 profit +26%; the East-West pipeline is doing what Hormuz cannot. ๐—จ๐—ฆ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ-๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป S&P futures -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%, Dow flat. Quiet open on the tape, but nervous underneath: oil higher, breadth narrow, Iran headlines still live. The 10Y closed Friday at 4.36%. The setup is clean. AI mania is masking the Iran war's damage to non-tech earnings. If crude holds above $100 into Q2 prints, the Fed-cut story dies and the rally's narrow base becomes a real problem, fast. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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