Yuri Zemtsov
The dollar slid to its lowest level since early 2022 after Donald Trump signaled that he’s comfortable with the recent weakening of the U.S. currency. The rally in metals has intensified, with gold and silver once again leading the charge; oil is also holding up well (Iran-related risks). Today, the FOMC decision on rates will be announced, with the market expecting no change and the policy rate to remain at 3.75%. The Dollar Index is accelerating to the downside and breaking out of its long-term ascending channel. On the monthly timeframe, a key support that had held for roughly 15 years has been broken. From a technical perspective, this looks like the start of a full-fledged downtrend rather than a short-term pullback. A weaker dollar should continue to support higher commodity prices and stronger demand for U.S. equities.
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