UNDERSTANDING RISK SCORES: HOW OUR OVERLAY MANAGED MARCH 2026
March was a stress test for every portfolio on eToro — and our overlay passed.
Risk score timeline:
- Dec 28 2025 to Mar 2: Score 7 (83% equity, Accelerating mode)
- Mar 4: Overlay shifts to Cruising (54% equity)
- Mar 13: Risk score drops to 4
- Mar 23: Overlay shifts to Braking (18% equity, risk score drops to 3)
The key insight: the risk score is backward-looking (trailing 7-day volatility). The overlay is forward-looking (23 real-time indicators). That is why we cut exposure on Mar 4, but the score did not follow until Mar 13.
Where the losses came from:
Most of our -7.9% March drawdown hit in the first week (Mar 2-6) at high equity exposure. After the overlay engaged, we lost only ~1.5% over the next 14 trading days — while SPY fell another -4.6%.
The overlay cannot prevent the first hit. It prevents the second and third. That is the difference between a bad month and a catastrophic quarter.
Full analysis with charts: www.veloriscapital.com/cockpit/etoro-risk-score-overlay-march-2026
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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Sun May 17 2026 20:46:45 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
