Qtaiba Al-Khamisi @k119871: "🖐 Greetings to all eToro..."

Sweden

🖐 Greetings to all eToro investors Outlook for the coming period 1. Why war affects the stock market The biggest impact of war usually comes through: oil prices energy prices trade routes fear/sentiment defense spending Due to tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have risen significantly. This directly impacts: transportation manufacturing food prices consumer inflation As a result, institutional investors expect inflation to remain higher for longer. Historically, the market often reacts in 3 phases: Phase 1 — Panic reaction The market drops quickly: Nasdaq falls sharply tech stocks come under pressure small caps weaken investors move into gold and defensive assets Phase 2 — Stabilization Investors start evaluating: Will the conflict escalate? Will oil prices stay high? Will the Federal Reserve intervene? Phase 3 — Selective rally The market begins choosing winners: AI defense energy companies with strong cash flow We are already starting to see this happen. --- 2. Inflation is currently the main driver War matters, but inflation ultimately determines the direction of Wall Street. The biggest fear among investors: > “The Fed may not be able to cut interest rates anytime soon.” Recent economic data shows U.S. inflation is rising again. Producer prices are increasing, with energy playing a major role. This means: higher bond yields more expensive borrowing pressure on real estate pressure on growth stocks Highly valued technology companies are especially sensitive to interest rate expectations. --- 3. Why the market is still holding up This is the surprising part. Despite: war inflation geopolitical stress high interest rates the U.S. market remains relatively strong. Why? A. AI continues attracting massive capital flows The AI boom is currently the biggest engine driving Wall Street. Companies are investing heavily in: data centers chips cloud infrastructure automation Major banks such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase still expect earnings growth in U.S. equities. B. Corporate earnings remain fairly strong Many large companies: continue raising prices protect profit margins buy back their own shares This helps support indexes like the S&P 500. C. Much of the risk is already priced in Institutional investors increasingly say: > “The market has already absorbed a lot of bad news.” Even Morgan Stanley states that major risks such as war and inflation are partly reflected in current valuations. --- 4. The biggest risk: stagflation This is what professional investors are truly worried about right now. Stagflation = high inflation weak economic growth high interest rates This scenario is dangerous because: the Fed cannot aggressively stimulate the economy companies grow more slowly consumers weaken financially Several economists warn that the U.S. may be closer to stagflation than many investors realize. --- 5. Which sectors are likely to remain strong Potential winners AI & semiconductors Companies connected to AI infrastructure are likely to remain dominant. Think about: chips cloud computing cybersecurity automation Defense War usually leads to: higher defense budgets more government contracts Energy When oil prices remain high, energy companies often perform very well. Financial institutions Banks can benefit from higher interest rates as long as the economy avoids a recession. --- 6. Which sectors are vulnerable Small growth companies These businesses depend heavily on cheap financing. Real estate High interest rates pressure real estate valuations. Weak consumer stocks Consumers increasingly feel the effects of inflation. --- 7. What can eToro followers realistically expect? Scenario 1 — Most likely high volatility no major crash market gradually moves higher AI remains the market leader continued sector rotation Scenario 2 — Bullish scenario If: oil prices fall inflation cools down the Fed eventually cuts rates then a strong rally could emerge. Scenario 3 — Bearish scenario If: the war escalates oil rises above $130 inflation surges again then Wall Street could experience a significant correction. --- Important for investors The coming period will likely be less about “buying the entire market” and more about: sector rotation selective stock picking cash flow quality businesses risk management The era where “everything rises together” appears to be over for now. Companies with: earnings growth pricing power AI exposure strong balance sheets currently have the strongest position. Meanwhile, speculative hype stocks remain extremely sensitive to: interest rates inflation geopolitical shocks This makes discipline and proper position sizing more important than ever. $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) $GOOG (Alphabet) $MSFT (Microsoft) $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) $VOOG (Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF) $MSFT $META (Meta Platforms Inc) $PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) $now $MNDY (Monday.com) $KLAR (Klarna Group plc) $MCHP (Microchip Technology Inc) $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.