๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฏ. ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
We're over three weeks into the US-Iran war and things are escalating, not calming down. Brent crude is near USD110, Gulf energy infrastructure is under attack, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a trickle.
๐๐๐ ๐ง๐๐จ๐ ๐จ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ง๐๐๐ก
The US macro picture was already patchy before the first missile launched. Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.7%, consumer sentiment was at its lowest of the year, and new home sales badly missed. But jobless claims and manufacturing data are holding up. The message isn't "everything's broken", but it's not "all's clear" either.
Throw an energy war into the mix, and the worst-case scenario is out there: a prolonged Strait closure, oil above USD120+, and an inflation spike that ties the Fed's hands and tips the global economy into stagflation. We need to keep an eye on that, but we're not there yet.
In times like these, history is worth remembering. The S&P 500 dropped ~10% when Iraq invaded Kuwait but rallied ~20% over the following year. After 9/11, markets recovered within months. The Dow rose ~50% between 1939 and 1945. The pattern: short-term pain, long-term recovery.
๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐ง๐ค๐ก
There are many major factors out there that we have no control over. But there are a couple that are incredibly important:
* Diversification, so no single headline can sink you
* Owning quality businesses with strong track records and dominant market positions
๐๐ค๐ง๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ก๐๐ค ๐ข๐ค๐ซ๐๐จ
I've been cashing in low-volatility positions and rotating into high-growth names that have become significantly cheaper in this risk-off environment. I've also started building a position in $SHEL (Shell PLC (ADR)) . The more this war escalates, the more I'll be adding to oil majors. If energy is the story, I want to own the businesses that benefit from it.
๐ฟ๐ค๐ฃ'๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐๐ฃ๐๐
If you're invested for the long term, you'll have a lot more (and longer) ups than downs. Energy crises are scary, but they resolve. The businesses we own will still be operating long after the headlines fade.
Stay invested. Stay diversified. Stay patient.
... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Exactly the right mindset. While geopolitical shocks and macro noise dictate the short-term headlines, history mathematically proves that panic is the worst investment strategy.... Show More
So Wes is moving towards swing trading it seems. Sorry, but you missed the timing on Shell by about 3 weeks. Dear copiers this portfolio is junk, and has no hedging resilience.... Show More
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Mon Aug 10 2026 08:16:29 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
