๐๐๐ก๐ก๐ค ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐ค๐ฃ๐, ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐๐ค๐ข๐ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ค๐ฅ๐๐๐ง๐จ.
I want to begin with a short but important thank you. There have been quite a few new copiers in the past month and I am quite thankful for that, Iโm also very thankful for the continued trust by the long-term copiers. With that I would now like to move on to the current situation in the market.
๐ ๐๐ฝ๐ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ผ
Straight to the chase, there has been a government shutdown ongoing for a full month now. The result of that has been that we havenโt received a full BLS (Bureau of labor statistics) report. However, the ADP report has eased concerns over the recent weak data. It showed solid job growth in the private sector, averaging around 14,250 new jobs per week. There are some questions about the government workers due to the shutdown that might still turn the sentiment negative in future, but right now this is quite a positive turn of events for the market.
๐๐๐๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐
CPI was luckily released due to the need for that specific number by the Social Security Administration otherwise we wouldnโt get these numbers either. CPI showed a 0.3% increase for the month of September and a 3% annualized rate, thus making inflation slower than expected by economists estimates of 0.4% and 3.1% respectively. This too was quite positive for the market sentiment as the inflation doesnโt seem to be increasing further.
๐๐๐ฟ'๐ ๐ฟ๐๐พ๐๐๐๐๐
With inflation not further increasing and a possibly stable jobs market the FED voted 10-2 for another 0.25% lowering of the federal rates. This brings the rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. In addition, the FED will end its reduction of assets purchases on Dec 1. Both decisions were seen as stimulative for the economy, driving market optimism even higher. The rate at which the market is pumping prices higher lately through any news thrown at it does seem unsustainable to me in the long run.
๐ผ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ ๐ผ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐พ๐๐๐?
There was news recently that Amazon might lay off 30 000 workers, on the same day the market reached new all time high and saw a pretty positive day. Many of us might have thought that AI was coming for warehouse, factory, and eventually delivery workers. As revealed a day or so later, the first to be cut were the middle managers, and the actual number was lower at 14,000. I do see Amazon as potentially one of the biggest benefactors of robotic and AI improvements, it will likely be able to become more and more efficient and profitable as it sadly replaces a lot of jobs. As a shareholder AI going for Amazon's workers is great and even makes me bullish for Amazon, but it is highly disturbing on a human level at the same time.
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No changes to the portfolio were made yet since the last post. Iโll look to make another post going over the earnings soon and any potential stock I might add.
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The big tech companies will be the very first to apply AI to cut as many jobs as possible, it's just a matter of time. Yes this is a bit disturbing.. expecially thinking at the next decade when AI will be so advance that we can't even imagine. I hope there will be a balance! Nice post :)... Show More
1 reply
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Sun Dec 14 2025 05:10:38 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
