Bernardus Smith @BernardusJS: "$SPX500 / $SPY 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞..."

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$SPX500 / $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 Over long periods, the S&P 500 has been remarkably consistent. Since 1928, total returns look roughly like this: - 9.9% nominal annualised - 6.7% after inflation - 73% of calendar years finish positive That’s the headline most people stop at. However - let's look at the distribution. The best year on record was 1954 (+52.6%). The worst was 1931 (−43.8%). Those are outliers - but they influence expectations far more than they should. 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐩 - 2022: −18.1% - 2023: +26.3% - 2024: +25.0% - 2025: +17.7% A sharp drawdown, followed by three strong years. Historically, this pattern hasn’t been especially good at predicting what comes next directionally. Markets rarely move that cleanly. If you step back and look at base rates instead of narratives, though, the picture is fairly straightforward. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 This isn’t a forecast or a position. Historically, about 3 out of 4 years are positive - and roughly 1 out of 4 are not. That makes a negative year a normal outcome, not a surprise. From here, the odds don’t look unusual - just less forgiving than they’ve been. If you had to pick a base case, what happens to the $SPX500 / $SPY in 2026?

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

Strong +20% or more

100.00%

Moderate +5% to +20%

100.00%

Flat -5% to +5%

100.00%

Negative −10% or worse

100.00%