▶️ December 13th, 2025 — $NATGAS Analytics
This week, natural gas reversed sharply from the early‑December spike, non-stop selling off all the way from 5+ to 3.89 close just above 3.82 EMA150. Daily RSI has flipped from overbought 70+ readings into the mid‑30s, itching closer to oversold posture.
The sell off was caused by sharp warm shift in medium‑range weather models, which stripped a substantial chunk of forecast late‑December demand (40+ HDDs from Week‑3 demand!) and triggered an unwind of weather premium despite the bullish storage surprise.
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Key Fundamentals (week vs last week)
• Production: stable around 110 Bcf/d
• Consumption: average of ~145 Bcf/d total U.S. gas demand including exports, vs 145.3 last week and still significantly above ~130bcf/d 5 yrs average for this time of the year
• LNG Exports: 18.5–18.8 Bcf/d, slightly higher vs last week’s 18 Bcf/d
• Storage: 177 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 5, above market expectations of ~170 Bcf. Inventories remain ~3% above the five‑year average
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Technical Levels
• Resistance: ~4-4.1 (EMA100), ~4.3 (EMA50) followed by ~4.8sh and 5.2 as the last high.
• Support: 3.8 EMA150, followed by 3.5 which i see as the most likely floor of this washout. Deeper flush would have to overcome 3.2 / 3 / 2.8 levels.
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Outlook
Every parabolic swing faces a flush correction sooner or later. From here, price is sitting on a technical and fundamental inflection point: short‑term indicators are close to oversold, yet the market remains well supplied with storage above the five‑year average and weekly production still near record levels. If forecasts re‑introduce credible late‑December or January Arctic risk—natgas can stage a recovery toward 4.7 as winter risk premium is rebuilt. If models stay mild or turn even warmer, the more natural path is continued consolidation or drift lower toward the 3.5–3.7. I do not see the price going substantially below 3.5 at this stage given that winter is kind of inevitable.
▶️ Nathalie ($NATGAS volatility trading model)
Week #50 update:
$5,370 Nathalie’s net profit (Nathalie’s earnings + refunds, excl. capital build up) =❗️76.7% vs $7k of assumed capital invested
▫️+ $3,260 Nathalie’s earnings (-600 this week)
▫️+ $2,115 Nathalie’s refunds (-195 this week)
EXCLUDED FROM EARNINGS: + $4,000 Capital build up (to reach $7,000)
+ $7,260 Total earnings as shown on Etoro's YTD statement
Current state:
$NATGAS: 912 units short (8 sells, including 3 oversized, and 6 buys); shut down 4 sells at 0 profit (4.65, 4.4, 4.2 and 4.05) and opened 6 buys (4.87, 4.65, 4.5, 4.3, 4.1 and 3.95)
$UNG (US Natural Gas): 757 units long (strategic buys, 2,483 NG equivalent units); 4 newly opened buys SL’d at 13 resulting in $650 realized loss, reopened and pending recovery
So on NG equivalent units I am already ~1,500 units long
▶️ Lookahead:
I used the correction to significantly rebalance Nathalie, moving from 4.5k NG units short to less than 1k units short plus a large pile of UNG buys. I am now sitting with 4 uncomfortably high NG buys that need unwinding before February 19th (4.3, 4.5, 4.65 and 4.87). IF I am unable to get rid of them BEFORE the price falls to 2.8, I will shut them down together with my inaugural 5.2 / 5 / 4.8 NG sells with some profit (better than being stuck with them and paying horrendous fees 8 months a year). UNG buys are in line with the plan, I can still add one more before i reach my ~1,000 units limit. These buys will be open for couple of months to monetize UNG appreciation through rolls. Note that TPs now look unrealistically high but these will naturally go down as UNG/NG coefficient goes up (current UNG/NG coefficient 3.28 is projected to reach 4.5-5 by February based on previous years’ stats).
▶️ Current key levels:
S=sell, B=buy;▪️limit price order 🔸TP ✅ executed during the week; UNG/NG = 3.28, NG<> values to be updated weekly; SD=shutdown with 0 profit/loss
$NATGAS: $150 is the default stake size for Phase 1 scale-up, legacy $100 positions are marked with “, strategic 500 units positions are marked with *
$UNG: stake size shown
🔸NG<6.27> / UNG 20.53 – REVISED TP $950
🔸NG<5.95> / UNG 19.49 – REVISED TP $550
🔸NG<5.51> / UNG 18.58 – TP $800
▪️NG 5.50 – RS (recovery sell 1,500 units); S1”/S2”/S3” to be shut down at 5.35 once RS is placed
▪️NG 5.35 – S14*
🔸NG<5.34> / UNG 17.5 – NEW TP $550
🔸NG<5.22> / UNG 17.1 – NEW TP $500
🔸NG<5.1> / UNG 16.7 – NEW TP $450
🔸NG 5.00 - NEW TP B2 3.95
▪️NG 4.87 - NEW SD SPARE BUY 4.87
🔸NG 4.82 - NEW TP SPARE BUY 4.65
🔸NG 4.78 - NEW TP B1 4.1
🔸NG 4.65 - NEW TP SPARE BUY 4.5
🔸NG 4.59 - NEW TP SPARE BUY 4.3
▪️NG 4.50 - NEW S9
▪️NG 4.35 - NEW S8
🔹NG 3.887 / UNG 12.73 – EOW LEVEL
✅▪️NG 3.85 – S6” SD
✅▪️NG 3.70 – B3
✅▪️NG 3.65 – S5” SD
▪️NG 3.50 – B4
▪️NG 3.35 – S3” SD
▪️NG 3.20 – S2” SD
▪️NG 3.10 – B5
▪️NG 3.05 – S1” SD
🔸NG 2.80 – S13*, S12*, S11* TP (+$3,200) and spare buys (4.85 / 4.65 / 4.5 / 4.3) SD (-$2,325)... Show More
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Tue Jan 20 2026 23:53:59 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
