Antonio Giambanco
Italy
2m
📊 Pivotal Week Ahead: CPI, PPI & What the Fed is Really Considering Hi All! We're entering a potentially decisive week for markets. The August jobs report revealed a sharp slowdown—just 22,000 new jobs, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the highest level since early 2021. Fed fund futures are now fully pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut, with an 11–12% chance of a 50-basis-point “jumbo” cut. What’s Shaping Up: July CPI clocked in at 2.7% year-over-year for headline, and 3.1% for core CPI, with services driving pressures Bureau of Labor Statistics. Tariff impacts remain moderate but are surfacing in services. The full effect on goods prices may unfold as inventories deplete. The Core of the Matter: The Fed is walking a tightrope: its dual mandate—price stability and full employment—is under strain. The soft labor market signals a rate cut, yet inflationary pressures persist. The upcoming CPI and especially the PPI data could shift the narrative and Fed’s calculus. Trading Insight: Expect volatility. A stable CPI supports a 25 bp cut. But if the PPI surprises higher, the Fed may pause or scale back. Be ready to adapt.
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