Alberto Poli @pino428: "📊 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨..."

Italy

📊 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 | 𝙃𝙞𝙜𝙝 𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮, 𝙎𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙠𝙮 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙉𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙞𝙣 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙀𝙧𝙧𝙤𝙧 This week confirms a regime shift: not an imminent recession, but a more complex environment. - Growth is holding up, but barely; energy remains elevated, and central banks have less room to ease. 𝙐𝙎 – 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙜𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙’𝙨 𝙟𝙤𝙗 Consumption and the labor market remain relatively solid. - Paradox: this resilience keeps inflationary pressure alive and reduces the room for rate cuts. 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚 – 𝙁𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝, 𝙪𝙣𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 Activity remains just above expansion territory, but lacks momentum. • Weak industrial sector • Near-zero growth • Inflation declining, but not enough - The Eurozone is entering a delicate zone: too weak to absorb shocks, yet too “hot” for the ECB to fully support. 🛢️ 𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮 – 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙧 Oil remains above $100, with European gas still elevated. - The key issue is not the peak, but the duration of the energy shock. 💱𝙁𝙓 & 𝙂𝙤𝙡𝙙 • Dollar dominance • Weak euro • Gold behaving less linearly as a hedge: in the short term, sharp market moves can trigger significant liquidations, driven not only by leverage but also by profit-taking after a strong rally, allowing investors to raise liquidity. - The market is rewarding liquidity and protection. 🚦 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 – 𝙀𝙖𝙧𝙡𝙮 𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙡𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 After weeks of geopolitical tensions, markets have acknowledged that the situation will not be resolved quickly. What is being priced in: • More persistent inflation • More restrictive monetary policies • Gradual tightening in financial conditions Equities are in risk-off mode, while credit remains (for now) relatively stable. 🧭 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 – 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 In this environment, we have adopted a cautious and flexible approach: 1. Higher cash levels → future optionality In recent months, we have significantly increased our cash allocation. - This is not inactivity, but a strategic choice: capital ready to be deployed in case of a meaningful market drawdown. 𝟮. 𝙄𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙝𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚𝙨 We have expanded bearish positions on US technology stocks. The Nasdaq remains particularly sensitive to: • higher interest rates • valuation repricing 𝟯. 𝙂𝙤𝙡𝙙 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚 → 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙛𝙪𝙡 𝙝𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 We increased our allocation to gold as a systemic hedge. Not a perfect short-term hedge, but still: • a diversifier • protection against macro and geopolitical shocks 𝟰. 𝙍𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙐𝙎 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚 We slightly reduced long-duration US bonds. In a scenario of: • persistent inflation • potentially rising yields the long end of the curve may continue to suffer. 🔎 𝙆𝙚𝙮 𝙩𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙖𝙬𝙖𝙮 Markets are changing in nature: less driven by liquidity, more by energy, inflation, and geopolitics. Our compass remains clear: • preserve capital • maintain flexibility • be ready to act when better opportunities arise Until a credible de-escalation materializes—ideally soon—markets are likely to remain fragile. Thank you for your support! $NSDQ100 $GOLD $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) $EURUSD

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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