Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "I woke up this morning..."

Finland

I woke up this morning and the screen was so green I had to shield my eyes. My portfolio recovered 4.5% yesterday in a single session. Pre market today is adding another 1.2% to it. After a month of red mornings this feels great, and I want to explain exactly what happened, because the move was not random. For six months the market told itself one story about AI. Everyone is spending. Nobody is earning. Every headline was another version of that sentence. I have been saying something else since 2024. This cycle would not be decided at the application layer. It would be decided by whoever owns the physical foundation underneath it - the chips, the data centres, the power that runs them. Picks and shovels, not prospectors. I don’t care if Anthropic or OpenAI is better maybe one of Chinese models? One way or the other you need hardware and electricity to run it. That thesis is still intact. This week it finally got its receipt. I was waiting specifically for $MSFT (Microsoft) Not for headline revenue, but for Azure. Azure growth is the cleanest signal in the market for whether AI infrastructure spending is turning into real money at the top of the stack. If Azure held, everything below it held too. Azure accelerated. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) confirmed it the next evening with AWS growing at its fastest pace in more than four years. Here is what actually mattered. Microsoft and Amazon finally found the words to explain the buildout to Wall Street, and then backed those words with numbers nobody could argue with. That combination moved roughly $450B of market value in one session, the largest single day gain any company has ever posted. Now look at the psychology. Microsoft walked into that report almost 30% below its high. Same company. Same customers. Same data centres going up on the same schedule. Nothing about the business had changed. What changed was belief, and belief repriced in six hours what fear had spent nine months tearing down. $META (Meta Platforms Inc) reported record revenue the same week and got sold hard, because it still cannot point at an outside customer paying for the compute. $AAPL (Apple) set a June quarter record and fell too, warning that memory costs have risen three quarters straight with no ceiling in sight. Read that last one again. The most valuable consumer hardware company on the planet is now rationed by chip and memory supply. That is my entire thesis on an earnings call. I did not touch my portfolio much this week. Added a bit of $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) on the dip. There was nothing to react to. The bottleneck was physical in 2024 and it is more physical today, and the market simply spent nine months arguing with a fact before agreeing with it. The hardest part of this job is not finding the thesis. It is sitting still while everyone tells you that you were wrong. So where do you stand now - has AI capex finally proven itself, or is one strong week from two companies too thin to call it? ——— $SPX500 ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.