Malachi Latimer @MrMoneyManETO: "Hope everyone is well! It has..."

United Kingdom

Hope everyone is well! It has been a volatile few months to say the least. Since the recent lows with seen quite the recovery. Of course, the usual FUD is being recycled: wars, inflation, AI etc however lets go through a quick overview of where things stand. Right now, the market is playing a game of tug-of-war. On one side, corporate earnings are solid, the U.S. labor market is holding up surprisingly well, and the heavy investments into AI infrastructure are keeping tech moving. On the other side, an energy shock and brewing supply chain strains are keeping inflation stubborn, meaning interest rates are likely staying higher for longer than anyone originally hoped. 1. Short-Term Outlook (The Next Few Months) Don't expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates anytime soon. The general consensus is that the Fed will likely remain on hold for the rest of 2026 to ensure inflation doesn't spike again. Geopolitical and Energy Pressures: Recent energy shocks have pushed global headline inflation back up toward the 3% mark. While this hurts at the pump, the core economy (excluding food and energy) is managing to absorb it decently well for now. AI Optimism / Supply Chains: Large-cap tech companies have massive piles of cash and are spending heavily on AI. However, there are rising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks in Southeast Asia for the physical hardware needed to build out data centers. 2. Medium-Term Outlook (1 to 3 Years) • Slow but Steady Growth: Global GDP growth is projected to hover around 3.2% for 2026 before ticking back up to roughly 3.4% in 2027. It’s a modest slowdown, but far from a recession collapse - more like a soft landing. The expected Rate Relief: If inflation softens as expected by next year, Wall Street is anticipating the Fed will finally be comfortable enough to issue a couple of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2027. Private vs Public Balance: Watch out for cracks in private credit and smaller, debt-heavy startups. While the large tech stocks are self-funding their growth with real cash flow, smaller companies that rely on borrowing are feeling the squeeze of expensive debt. - Because the short term looks a bit choppy and unpredictable, trying to perfectly time the exact bottom or top of this market is a stressful guessing game. This type of environment—where the long-term trajectory is generally constructive but the short term is filled with macro noise—is exactly the kind of landscape where a disciplined, steady approach shines. Letting a systematic plan run in the background allows you to pick up shares cheaper during the jittery weeks without worrying about the daily headlines. Over the next months / years corrections are likely, crashed are possible but for me this is irrelevant I have whittled my portfolio dca schedule down to 22 assets , with the remaining ones being left to run and BIL being used as my cash position, also a small amount left in my balance for my next DCA. So with that said, expect less posts from me as I stick to my schedule and ignore the noise. Of course I will update if my strategy changes or if theres some genuinely impactful news however for the short term it seems the volatility will continue, the FUD will be regurgitated and my base case for the rest of the year is a continued grind up with consolidation or corrections in between. There are some red flags and its good to also be conscious of a potential larger drop, although i’m not expecting this until late this year or early next at the earliest, and even then I remain bullish for the medium term, and optimistic that even if things turn bearish, with my strategy the long term is pretty secure. Thanks for reading, have a great weekend! Whats your outlook for the rest of the year? $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $BTC $GOLD $OIL

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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