Stewart Fitzell @defense_investor: "𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 TLDR: Oil..."

Ireland

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 TLDR: Oil disruption and early private credit market stress are increasing market volatility. I’ve asjusted exposure, increased cash to ~25%, and positioned for higher oil prices. 𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠 The disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Iran war is one of the largest energy shocks in decades. Around 20% of global oil supply normally passes through this route. This has pushed oil up past $100. The key question is how long the disruption lasts. If the war and associated disruption ends and oil prices fall back quickly the global economy can absorb the shock. If oil remains elevated for several months, the economic impact could become more significant. 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠 If oil stays high: • Interest rates remain higher for longer • Consumer spending weakens • Corporate margins come under pressure There are also early signs of stress in parts of the private credit market. Some funds have limited withdrawals and banks have reduced lending to certain structures. So far this does not appear to be systemic risk, but it is something markets are watching closely. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 Over the past number of weeks I have gradually reduced potential downside risk and positioned for higher oil prices. I am currently holding around 25% cash, providing flexibility if volatility creates opportunities. The portfolio is currently tilted toward energy, defence, and commodities - sectors that tend to perform better during periods of geopolitical tension and rising oil prices. Key exposures right now include: $BRNT.L (WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil) , $SHEL (Shell PLC (ADR)) , $BP.L (BP) , $RHM.DE (Rheinmetall AG) , $SLV (iShares Silver Trust) For newer copiers seeing a negative value in their copy, some context helps. Around this time 12 months ago markets were also under pressure, yet due to careful positioning and adjusting the portfolio later recovered and finished the year significantly stronger. 𝙋𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙙𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙪𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙧𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙮 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙚𝙭𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙜𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩. Regards, Stewart ⚠️ Risk Warnings: Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice | Your capital is at risk | The value if your investments may go up or down. | Past performance is not indicative of future

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.