Pietari Laurila @triangulacapital: "ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 6 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 A..."

United Arab Emirates

ᴡᴇᴇᴋʟʏ ᴜᴘᴅᴀᴛᴇ 6 ᴀᴘʀɪʟ 2026 A few tentative positive signs about the war in Iran have emerged in the last week: 1. More ships are crossing the Strait of Hormuz than in previous weeks, although absolute numbers remain low. Markets frequently trade on the rate of change - whether things are improving or worsening - so this could be an important signal. https://x.com/AndreasSteno/status/2040498945210610043 2. No material escalation has taken place; this reduces the probability of the most catastrophic scenarios involving large-scale damage to energy infrastructure. 3. Longer-dated oil futures have fallen below their short-term moving averages, improving the technical picture. 4. Investors are more pessimistic than average. ycharts.com/indicators/us_investor_sentiment_bull_bear_spread Set against these positives: 1. The decline in indices has been small, with no capitulation visible. 2. Even after the war ends, oil prices are likely to remain elevated for a while, due to a geopolitical risk premium and the need to rebuild storage. This will increase inflation at a time when it was already running above target. www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/mct 3. The economic acceleration that started in late 2022 has lasted for 3.5 years already. During that time, the labour market has softened, increasing the probability of a recession over the next 12 months. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUR www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.html Taken together, the near-term outlook has improved and markets may rally if the conflict continues to ease. However, the medium-term backdrop remains uncertain, particularly if growth continues to slow while inflation stays elevated. I will continue to gradually reduce the share of cash in the portfolio over the coming week because of improvements in the technical picture, but the risk level will be kept lower than normal. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 A new position has been opened in Vonovia, while the level of cash has been brought down to around 45%. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 www.triangulacapital.com 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺. 𝘐𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘯 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘶𝘺, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘯𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭, 𝘵𝘢𝘹, 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘗𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘧𝘶𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘴.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

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