What A Time to Be Alive
1. 1900
John D. Rockefeller was the richest man the world had ever seen.
But for most of his adult life he didn’t have electric lights, air conditioning, or sunglasses. And he never had penicillin, sunscreen, or Advil. This is not ancient history - One in twenty Americans were born before Rockefeller died.
2. Pessimism
The majority of Americans think the next generation of adults will be worse off than their parents.
I think of two things when I hear this.
One, the pessimists are probably wrong, extrapolating a bad decade into infinity. Two, progress is like compound interest – you don’t even notice it in the short run, but it’s mind-blowing when you zoom out and see what can be accomplished over long periods.
There are so many things still wrong with the world, and the future will always be hard. But when confronted with pessimism, Warren Buffett reminds us that normal Americans “live better than John D. Rockefeller did.”
3. 2000
Here are some examples of how right he is -
- Life expectancy in America has increased from 47 years in 1900 to 78 years in 2011.
- The frequency of U.S. recessions has plunged. From 1860 to 1900 US was in recession 48% of the time, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. From 1900 to 1940, 43% of the time. From 1940 to 1980, 15%. Since 1980, just over 12%.
- Microsoft sold a computer mouse in 1985 for $179, or $401 adjusted for inflation. Today $401 can buy you a Chromebook, a Kindle tablet, and an iPhone 5, with enough money left over for lunch.
- The percentage of American adults who smoke daily declined from 45% in 1965 to 18% in 2012, according to OECD.
- The DailyMail writes, “In 1900 a typical male was 5ft 6in tall, but by 2000 that had gone up to 5ft 10in … Researchers put the growth spurt mostly down to pregnant mothers eating better food which meant their babies grew up to be stronger and healthier.”
- Tom Goodwin writes , “The world’s largest taxi firm, Uber, owns no cars. The world’s most popular media company, Facebook, creates no content. The world’s most valuable retailer, Alibaba, carries no stock. And the world’s largest accommodation provider, Airbnb, owns no property.”
4. Conclusion
What a time to be alive.
And how to invest in this time - Same as always - Rather than betting big on one Business over and over again, how about splitting it among many great Businesses like $XOM (Exxon-Mobil)$P911.DE (Porsche AG)$DHI (D.R. Horton Inc)$BOL.ST (Boliden AB) and $FERG.L (Ferguson PLC)cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/974/1*jsmMWLGy5OkulN0zvAswnA@2x.png
I welcome you all to look at my Portfolio and add it to your Watchlist >>
I look forward to growing with all of you : )
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