Joao Miguel Silva Ferreira
TECH RALLIES AS AI SPENDING FLOODS THE MARKET The $NSDQ100 just posted its best session in weeks, up 3.07% — powered by one name. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) surged +10.84% in a single session, pushing AI infrastructure stocks broadly higher. .$NVDA gained 3.54%, $ASML (ASML Holding NV) added 1.56%, and the semis trade is back in force. The trigger: OpenAI disclosed $34 billion in spending last year ahead of its IPO filing — and the market is pricing in a world where AI infrastructure spending is only accelerating. Bond yields ticked slightly lower to 4.47%, a modest relief rally that suggests the market isn't panicking about inflation — at least not yet. The VIX slipped to 16.14, near its lowest levels of the year. Smart money is betting calm before tomorrow's storm. ─────────────────── 3 DATES THAT MATTER ─────────────────── ① June 16-17 — FOMC Meeting → What it is: Two-day policy meeting where the Fed releases its latest statement and economic projections → Why it matters: First meeting since the April pause. Markets have priced in steady rates, but the dots and Powell Q&A could shift the narrative ② July 4 — US Jobs Report → What it is: Monthly non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate → Why it matters: The last major data point before the July 28-29 FOMC. Could confirm soft landing or force a hawkish pivot ③ July 28-29 — FOMC Meeting → What it is: Mid-summer Fed meeting with press conference → Why it matters: With 6 weeks of data between now and then, this is the real "what's next" moment for rate policy ───────────────────── WHAT TO PREPARE FOR The FOMC tomorrow is the headline event, but here's what's underneath: the market is pricing a soft landing so perfectly that any surprise — either from the dots or from Powell's tone — could cause a sharp move in either direction. VIX at 16.14 reflects complacency. That's worth watching. Also notable: $SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) just leapfrogged Amazon to become the world's 5th largest company by market cap after a blistering post-IPO rally and a $60 billion acquisition. The SpaceX thesis is playing out — and it's giving Musk-aligned trades new legs. On the geopolitical front: Strait of Hormuz remains a watching point. Shipping companies are on alert after Mitsui Osk Lines warned that any Iran deal must be "material" before they restore normal operations through the strait. Energy exposure via VST hedges this, but it's worth monitoring.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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