Alberto Poli @pino428: "📊 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 & 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 |..."

Italy

📊 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤 & 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 | 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙨 Markets keep climbing and setting new highs, driven mainly by the strength of Big Tech. But beneath the surface, the picture is far more complex. We are in a phase where three hard-to-reconcile dynamics coexist: less predictable central banks, still-solid (but concentrated) corporate earnings, and increasingly pressured consumers. The result is a market that appears resilient, but in reality rests on delicate balances. 🏦 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙨, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙝 The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, a widely expected decision. However, what truly caught the market’s attention was the tone and, above all, the level of internal division. The FOMC split with an 8–4 vote, a degree of dissent not seen in decades. This is not just a technical detail—it signals much less certainty within the central bank about the right path forward. At the same time, inflation was clearly described as “elevated,” also due to rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions. This shifts the narrative: the Fed is not hiking, but it also doesn’t feel in a position to cut rates easily. Jerome Powell reiterated three key points: no imminent hikes, but no rush to ease either; rising short-term inflation expectations; and a context still too uncertain to commit to an easing path. 🔄 𝙏𝙤𝙬𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙜𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙛𝙩 𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙 Adding to the complexity is the transition toward Kevin Warsh. A potential leadership change is not just symbolic: Warsh has historically been more critical of ultra-expansionary policies and more supportive of reducing the Fed’s role in markets. Translated, in the medium term we could see less structural liquidity and a less “protected” financial environment compared to recent years. Meanwhile, Powell could remain on the Board, creating a non-trivial institutional transition phase. 🌍 𝙀𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝: 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙢𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙪𝙢 On the macro side, data confirm an economy that is holding up but struggling to accelerate. In the United States, growth stands around 2%, below expectations, with core inflation still above 3%. In Europe, the situation is even weaker, with nearly flat growth. The European Central Bank remains cautious as well: rates on hold, inflation still above target, and limited room for more accommodative policies. We are clearly in a late-cycle phase: no imminent recession, but no real expansion either. 🛢️ 𝙊𝙞𝙡 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨 𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙜𝙚 One of the most underestimated factors right now is energy. Oil has climbed back above critical levels, and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues to represent a systemic risk. The UAE’s exit from OPEC has important long-term implications, but in the short term prices are still driven by geopolitics, not potential supply. This translates into direct pressure on inflation. 📈 𝘽𝙞𝙜 𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝: 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩’𝙨 𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙚 𝙥𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧 If markets are holding up, it is largely thanks to tech giants. Amazon continues to show robust growth, with cloud and advertising above expectations, even as massive AI investments are compressing cash flow. Alphabet, for its part, is posting impressive cloud growth (+63%) and further increasing investment in AI infrastructure. The point is clear: growth exists, but it is becoming increasingly expensive. 🧠 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙤𝙭: 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨, 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙠 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙨 This is where the real fracture emerges. On one side, indices remain surpassed all-time highs. On the other, consumer sentiment is at multi-year lows - where high energy costs is reducing purchasing power. Historically, such a wide divergence does not last long without an increase in volatility. 💱 𝙒𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙮𝙚𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠 Important signals are also emerging in FX markets. The move in USD/JPY, with a break above 160 followed by a rebound in the yen, suggests possible intervention by Japanese authorities. The real risk here is a domino effect: a stronger yen could trigger the unwinding of carry trades, with rapid impacts across asset classes, from equities to credit. ⚠️ 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙩𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙪𝙨 The emerging picture is clear: • the Fed is on hold, but more restrictive than it appears • inflation remains energy-driven • Big Tech supports the market, but at rising costs • consumers are showing signs of weakness • the Fed transition could become a source of volatility 💡 𝙁𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙖𝙜𝙚 Today’s market is not supported by macroeconomics. It is supported by three pillars: accumulated liquidity, concentrated earnings, and the AI narrative. As long as these elements hold, the trend can continue. But if one of them cracks—whether inflation, rates, or earnings—the regime shift could be very rapid. 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙠 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $GOOG (Alphabet) $OIL $EURUSD

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.