Loic Le Maho @LoicInv: "Another sharp decline in the..."

France

Another sharp decline in the book after we had the beginning of a catch up at the beginning of the week. The "reason" for that being the fist FOMC meeting of Walsh yesterday. Basically rates were unchanged and the final report said that the fed was commited to "price stability" and that's it --> another sharp decline in commodities and precious miners in particular as the algos automatically sell. Nothing has changed. The market get it completely backward. Walsh's job is to protect the USD by giving the feeling that everything is fine and boost confidence in the US economy. At least on the short term, this is working as the $SPX500 and the $USDOLLAR are going up. What makes it completely inconsistent is that long term yield are going down at the same time $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ) ! This can't be the case : if the market is anticipating tighter monetary policy, $TLT should be tanking and the stock market as well. Instead there is a rally in the market and only precious metals get hit. It really gives me an impression that Walsh is on a hit mission on PM against the USD as precious metals are the main threat for the dollar. As a consequence, we must stomach that volatility and the book is down 20% from its top from 3 weeks ago. On a personal note, I added more to the strategy last week as I really think this is market manipulation on PM, as it has been for the past decades. They just can't let this happen. But they can't do anything about it. Trump lost the war in Iran and this is the rise of China. And China controls the tech, the science and all commodities. $SILVER is a key metal for the energy transition, the AI revolution and China's past currency. I have even unwinded at a loss some $NEM (Newmont Mining Corp) despite their incredible recent results to add more $SILVER . But I can't add leverage as I'm already in a spread short $USDNOK , short $RTY and long $OIL . As soon as one of those legs correct, I will add more to the other but one must be unwinded first. Let's wait for the convergence.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.