Zechariah Bin Zheng @FundManagerZech: "🚨 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁..."

Australia

🚨 𝗘𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🧾 𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥 🧭 We don’t time markets — the short term is chaos, the long term rewards discipline. 📉 Portfolio down ~3%, more pain likely after Monday’s open. 💰 Cash near 20% (incl. USDCHF) — intentionally held for volatility. 🛢️ Oil fell below $60 while gold rallied — rare, but tells a story. 💵 The U.S. dollar is losing its safe-haven shine. 💪 Core thesis intact: Civitas & Danaos remain strong; we’re built for this. 🧭 1️⃣ 𝑾𝒆 𝑫𝒐𝒏’𝒕 𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕𝒔 — 𝑾𝒆 𝑬𝒏𝒅𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝑻𝒉𝒆𝒎 Let’s be clear: we don’t try to time markets. The short term is noise, chaos, and randomness pretending to be order. Trying to “optimize” day-to-day performance is impossible — even dangerous. We ignore it completely. Instead, we focus on what we can actually control: research, sizing, liquidity, patience, and mental discipline when everyone else is losing theirs. The long term rewards consistency, not cleverness. We’ll never catch every high, and we’ll never dodge every low. But when the music stops, we’ll still be standing — ready to act when others can’t. ⚠️ 2️⃣ 𝑨 𝑻𝒐𝒖𝒈𝒉 𝑫𝒂𝒚, 𝒃𝒖𝒕 𝑵𝒐𝒕 𝒂 𝑺𝒖𝒓𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒆 I’ve been warning for weeks that markets felt toppish — valuations stretched, economy weakening, optimism overflowing. That’s why we’ve carried ~20% cash, including our $USDCHF position. $USDCHF Yesterday proved why. We’re down around 3%, and I expect some spillover after Monday’s open. The selloff wasn’t about fundamentals — it was political drama: Trump–Xi headlines and an oil drop tied to ceasefire talk. These shocks appear suddenly — and that’s how corrections start. 🛢️ 3️⃣ 𝑶𝒊𝒍, 𝑮𝒐𝒍𝒅 & 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑫𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒂𝒓 — 𝑨 𝑺𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 𝑴𝒂𝒓𝒌𝒆𝒕 𝑺𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒂𝒍 Oil $OIL falling below $60 while gold surges is an unusual setup. Normally, in geopolitical stress, both would weaken together or move in sync. But gold has been on such a strong run that it’s acting on its own momentum — a magnet for safe-haven flows. Academic studies confirm gold behaves as a short-term hedge when uncertainty spikes, even when oil slumps. The bigger surprise is the U.S. dollar, which used to be the global panic button. Now, its reactions are muted — it barely rallies during crises. The “king dollar” era as a pure safe haven is fading, replaced by gold and bonds absorbing that role. 💼 4️⃣ 𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑯𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒗𝒔. 𝑾𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑴𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒔 None of this changes our core thesis. Civitas ($CIVI) still earns solid cash flow with oil above $40. Analysts see 20–30% upside if revalued or sold. If oil rebounds, we gain even more. Danaos ($DAC) also fell, but shipping fundamentals remain tight: supply is limited, retirements rising, and replacement value underpriced. Yes, yesterday we didn’t lose less — we took the hit too. But our structure gives us room to recover faster. These drops don’t break the story; they make future returns better. 💵 5️⃣ 𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒉 𝑰𝒔 𝑨𝒎𝒎𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏, 𝑵𝒐𝒕 𝑰𝒅𝒍𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒔𝒔 Holding cash isn’t laziness — it’s a strategy. It lets us move when opportunity appears. My current plan: Deploy 5% this week. Another 5% if markets steady. Keep the rest ready for deeper dislocations. We’re not timing the market. We’re preparing for it. 🔄 𝑭𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑻𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒈𝒉𝒕𝒔 Corrections are painful, but necessary. They reset valuations, shake out leverage, and create the setups we wait for. The noise around China, Trump, and oil may fade, but value doesn’t. I may not outperform at the top, but I’m built for downturns and recoveries. These are the moments that test patience — and reward it later. They may not pay off tomorrow, but they will. 💬 I’ll be doing an update call soon — please drop any questions in the comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.

2 Mentioned

USDCHF

OIL

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