๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ & ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ผ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: ๐๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐ ๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ ๐ถ๐๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ
TLDR: Markets are treating the Gulf oil crisis as temporary, but I believe its longer-term effects, particularly on inflation, supply chains, and food, are being underestimated. Iโve adjusted portfolio allocations to increase cash and am staying patient as opportunities emerge.
๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฒ๐
Weโve seen a sharp shift in markets in recent weeks, driven by events in the Gulf and higher energy prices resulting from this. I believe many investors are mispricing the true medium to long-term impact of this oil shock.
Markets appear to be expecting a quick normalisation. However, energy shocks tend to feed through the system in stages - from transport and manufacturing into fertiliser and food. These effects take time, but can keep inflation elevated longer than expected.
Alongside this, risks are building elsewhere. The private credit market is starting to show signs of strain, and tighter conditions could expose more leveraged areas of the market. These risks are not fully priced yet, but could amplify any slowdown.
๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ณ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ผ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
The portfolio is currently negative year-to-date. It never feels good to see any investment in the red, but these periods are often where the groundwork for future returns is laid.
๐ช๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐โ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ
Iโve taken advantage of strength in oil and gas, reduced exposure in several more exposed positions to increase my cash position to around 37%. In this environment, flexibility matters.
Gold and silver have pulled back, particularly following the US Federal reserve commentary (which means that some view US government bonds as safer right now), but if inflation begins to show more clearly, I expect them to move higher . For now, this looks like a pause rather than a change in trend.
๐๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐๐ป๐ฑ๐
Times like now are often the best to add funds to the copy. If you decide to, I would suggest doing so gradually over the coming weeks rather than all at once.
๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ
The market may be underpricing what comes next. The focus remains on patience, risk management, and being ready to act as opportunities emerge.
Regards,
Stewart
โ ๏ธ Risk Warnings:
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice | Your capital is at risk | The value if your investments may go up or down. | Past performance is not indicative of future results.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Hello dear Stuart, I notice from your words that you seem discouraged by the markets. 1- My dear, you are a professional investor, and in my opinion, this is a great opportunity to increase your wealth. We went through the 2008 crisis, the COVID-19 crisis, and last year's crisis, known as Liberation... Show More
Guten Abend Herr Fitzell,
ich wรผnsche Ihnen fรผr das Krisenmanagement des Depots Weise Entscheidungen. Krisenzeiten bieten immer auch tolle Chancen! Keep cool and go on!
Schรถne Grรผรe aus Deutschland
S.T.... Show More Translate
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Tue May 19 2026 03:49:41 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
