Simone Grigoli
Italy
2m
🇨🇳 METALS: THE CENTER OF PRICE DISCOVERY IS SHIFTING TOWARD CHINA This is not short-term noise. It’s a structural shift worth watching closely. What we’re observing: • The most meaningful price moves in gold and silver increasingly originate during Asian trading hours • Europe and the US tend to react, but rarely set the pace • Volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have grown dramatically Why Beijing is turning to metals: • Real estate sector under pressure • Unconvincing equity markets • Restrictions on outbound capital flows 👉 Metals are becoming an alternative tool to express a macro view. The critical issue: Part of the recent rally is hard to explain through fundamentals alone. Physical scarcity has not increased at the same pace as prices. What is really driving the market today: • Positioning • Leverage • Momentum More than fundamentals — at least in the short term. The consequences: • More violent price moves • Elevated volatility • Higher risk of sharp corrections if sentiment or policy shifts ➡️ This explains the extreme swings we are seeing. ➡️ For now, metals are being driven mainly by Chinese speculative flows, not by fundamentals.
null
.