Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "August is running at +3.47%..."

Finland

August is running at +3.47% and the year is at +25.83%. The portfolio is back near its highs. Four weeks ago it did not look like that. July closed at -4.53% and the AI infrastructure trade was being sold hard. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) fell about 29% on the month. $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) lost 47%. The momentum factor had one of its worst months on record. A lot of people rotated into defensives and waited for the crash. I wrote a few posts at the time that positioning had broken, not demand. That was the whole call, and the earnings since then have settled it. $MSFT (Microsoft) reported Azure growth of 43%, crossed $100 billion in annual Azure revenue, and told investors that demand is greater than supply. Capex of $41 billion for the quarter, and this time the market read it as confidence rather than recklessness. The stock jumped double digits after being down 19% for the year. $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) disclosed an AWS backlog of $496 billion. Google Cloud grew 82%. Palantir grew revenue 93% and raised its guidance. $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) posted record revenue with data centre sales up 107%. Memory is the one piece still lagging. SanDisk and Western Digital both beat this week and both stocks fell anyway. The price is sideways while the fundamentals keep getting better. NAND supply stays short into 2028, new DRAM capacity is not scheduled before late 2027, and $MU data centre SSD revenue more than doubled sequentially. I am fine being early on that one. Rates are the real wildcard. The Fed sits at 3.50-3.75% and the market is pricing increases rather than cuts, with December odds near 75%. Friday’s jobs report showed the economy losing 23,000 jobs, and stocks rallied on the bad news because it pushes a hike further out. I do not trade around that. I hold the gap between committed AI capex and hardware that takes years to deliver, which is $VRT (Vertiv Holdings Co) for power and cooling, memory, $GEV (GE Vernova LLC) and $CEG (Constellation Energy Corp) for the electricity underneath all of it. Holding through a month like July is the hard part, and it is exactly what copying is for. You get the same positions without having to talk yourself out of selling at the bottom. How did your July go, and did you change anything? —— $SPX500 $NSDQ100 ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.