Alexander Tapia @alexddtl1: "📊 Portfolio Positioning & Market..."

Peru

📊 Portfolio Positioning & Market View (Nov 2025) • $ALAB (Astera Labs Inc) 14.89% • $SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc) 13.25% • $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) 12.87% • $NBIS (Nebius Group NV) 12.64% • $UNH (UnitedHealth) 11.98% • $APP (Applovin Corp) 7.26% • $VST (Vistra Corp) 5.65% • $EOSE (Eos Energy Enterprises Inc) 5.53% • $CIFR (Cipher Mining Inc) 3.88% • $CNC (Centene Corp) 3.84% • $HIMS (Hims & Hers Health Inc) 3.12% • $OSCR (Oscar Health Inc) 2.95% • $BMNR (Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc) 2.14% ⚖️ Market Breadth Still Narrow Equity markets continue to trade at elevated valuations, but the rally hasn’t been supported by a broadening breadth — meaning more stocks are not participating in the rally. The market leadership remains narrow, with a handful of large-cap tech and AI-related names driving the bulk of performance, while most of the S&P 500 still lags behind. This divergence is clearly reflected in the spread between the SPY and the SPY Equal-Weighted Index. 🤖 The AI Trade: Fundamentals Over Hype The AI trade remains the dominant narrative in markets. Unlike the dotcom bubble, I believe this is not a speculative phenomenon. The difference lies in fundamentals — leading AI companies have delivered sustained earnings growth, rising profit estimates, and in some cases, such as NVIDIA, even lower valuation multiples despite soaring stock prices. The Q3 earnings season, particularly from the Magnificent 7, reinforced this view: cloud computing demand remains strong, and major tech firms continue to commit significant CapEx to expand data center capacity and meet AI-related demand. This suggests that AI is not just a cyclical trend, but a structural investment theme shaping the next decade. ⚠️ Risks: Overcrowded Trade & High Expectations That said, a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. Market expectations have grown increasingly optimistic, making positive surprises harder to achieve. As the sector matures, earnings growth will naturally slow, and AI-driven cash flows may take longer to materialize than markets currently anticipate. So far earnings season have been Good but this strong earnings are being rewarded less, reflecting higher investor standards, given their increasing expectations. 🏦 Macro Uncertainty: Limited Data, Fed in Focus From a macro standpoint, the U.S. government shutdown has limited the release of official data, making it difficult to gauge real-time inflation dynamics. Private data suggest goods inflation has picked up, while the shelter component is expected to moderate in coming months — a key factor for determining whether the Fed can proceed with further rate cuts. Following the latest FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, emphasizing internal debate within the Committee — a stance echoed by Hammack. This caused markets to reprice expectations, unwinding the previously priced-in 100% probability of a December cut. 📈 Constructive Setup Into Year-End Interestingly, this repricing occurred without a sharp equity selloff, which I view as constructive for risk assets heading into year-end. Seasonality also plays in favor of equities, with November and December historically being strong months for the S&P 500. Taken together, these dynamics could allow the S&P 500 to extend its rally toward 7,000, supported by resilient earnings, a still-accommodative policy stance, and potential reallocation flows from money markets. 🔄 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Ahead In late October, I reduced exposure to $BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) and increased portfolio risk, which has significantly boosted returns. I used recent market pullbacks to add exposure to AI and data center plays such as $ALAB and $NBIS . After reviewing the earnings calls from $GOOG (Alphabet) $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) $META (Meta Platforms Inc) and $MSFT (Microsoft) I decided to further increase my AI and tech positioning, as the sector’s earnings momentum and capital investment outlook remain robust. Looking forward, I expect continued market support through November, especially as earnings reinforce the AI-driven growth narrative and as liquidity rotates from over 7 trillion parked in money market funds into equities seeking higher returns. As the quarter progresses, I plan to trim gains gradually and adopt a more defensive posture once the fiscal impasse in Washington is resolved and macro data releases resume — providing better visibility on inflation trends and labor market dynamics. $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) $QQQ (Invesco QQQ) $VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETN) $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies