Stewart Fitzell @defense_investor: "𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸,..."

Ireland

𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸, 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝙏𝙇;𝘿𝙍 / 𝙎𝙪𝙢𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙮 The Iran war is likely to last longer than many initially expected. Energy risk- particularly around the Strait of Hormuz has become the key market variable. Oil prices have already moved sharply higher this week as traders price in disruption risk. Despite elevated geopolitical tension, markets have reacted with volatility rather than panic. My approach remains disciplined and focused on long-term positioning with some adjustments to take account of the situation. 𝙄𝙧𝙖𝙣 𝙒𝙖𝙧 𝙇𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙏𝙤 𝙇𝙖𝙨𝙩 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙧 What many initially hoped would be a limited military campaign now appears increasingly likely to evolve into a more prolonged conflict. As the situation develops, markets are adjusting expectations and factoring in a period of elevated geopolitical uncertainty. 𝙀𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙜𝙮 𝙍𝙞𝙨𝙠 𝘼𝙣𝙙 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙩 𝙊𝙛 𝙃𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙪𝙯 The most immediate economic risk centers on energy markets. Iran has threatened disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route through which roughly twenty percent of global oil passes. In practice this has already happened, with many vessels anchored on either side of the Strait as shipowners wait for clarity on the security situation. Ten ships have so far been attacked by Iran. What many are asking is how long will this continue and what will be the next reaction with some Gulf states saying that production could be shut down in days. Oil markets have reacted accordingly, with prices rising sharply this week as traders price in the possibility of supply disruption. 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙍𝙚𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 Despite the intensity of the headlines, market reactions have been volatile but measured with European and Asian markets harder hit than the US. Historically, geopolitical shocks often trigger short-term sell-offs before stabilising once investors gain clarity on the likely economic impact. If there is a dramatic increase in oil prices there is a real possibility however of a further and wider pull back. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙐𝙥𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 Periods of geopolitical stress can create broad market moves that are not always aligned with underlying fundamentals. In these environments, maintaining discipline is important. During the recent volatility I have taken the opportunity to deploy some of the cash previously held in the portfolio, opening new positions in $SHEL.L (Shell PLC) and $BP.L (BP) , while also adding to several existing holdings including $RR.L (Rolls-Royce) , $U308.DE , and the Japanese equity ETF $IJPD.L (iShares MSCI Japan USD Hedged UCITS ETF Acc) . The overall focus remains on maintaining a balanced portfolio positioned around long-term investment themes rather than reacting to short-term headlines. Having said that 𝙄 𝙖𝙢 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙨𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙪𝙡 𝙖𝙙𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙖 𝙥𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙬𝙝𝙞𝙘𝙝 𝙢𝙖𝙮 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬 𝙞𝙛 𝙤𝙞𝙡 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙚𝙢𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙡𝙮 𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙂𝙪𝙡𝙛. I continue to monitor the situation, its effects and potential consequences closely. Regards, Stewart ⚠️ Risk Warnings: Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice | Your capital is at risk | The value if your investments may go up or down. | Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.